Economic Survey 2026 highlights: CEA flags skill gaps and structural risks in AI era

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Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran, speaking at the Economic Survey press briefing, said currency depreciation is a common phenomenon across emerging markets and not unique to India.

He said the Indian rupee’s movement mirrors trends seen in other emerging market currencies over both long-term and recent periods, reflecting global financial conditions rather than domestic macro stress.

Nageswaran said strengthening the rupee over time will depend on building manufacturing strength, adding that across successful industrialising economies, manufacturing-led export growth has preceded improvements in current account balances, foreign exchange reserves and currency credibility. He said services exports play an important but secondary role and work best as a complement, not a substitute, to a strong manufacturing base.

Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran, speaking at the Economic Survey press briefing, said emerging market economies face a key conundrum in the current global environment, where resource self-sufficiency is becoming increasingly important even as imports inevitably rise with income growth.

He said India needs to build stronger buffers, pointing to rising global commodity prices such as copper as a reminder of supply-side vulnerabilities.

Referring to China, Nageswaran said its growth in imports closely tracked the rise in per capita income, making it not just an export giant but also a major import economy. He added that India is likely to see a similar trend as incomes rise,

Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran, speaking at the Economic Survey press briefing, said the idea of Swadeshi has evolved from self-reliance to strategic resilience and strategic indispensability.

He said Swadeshi matters because the nature of the global system has changed, trade is no longer reciprocal, markets are no longer neutral, and supply chains have become instruments of state power.

Nageswaran cited global examples such as export restrictions by China, tariffs and export licences imposed by the US, the European Union’s carbon border adjustment mechanism, and export controls on advanced technology by countries like the Netherlands and Canada.

He said in such a global environment, Swadeshi should be seen as a policy instrument rather than an ideological choice.

Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran, speaking at the Economic Survey press briefing, cautioned that global financial markets may not be fully reflecting real-world economic uncertainty built up during the era of easy money.

He pointed to stretched valuations, noting that the Shiller price-to-earnings ratio of the S&P 500 is close to a 26-year high.

Nageswaran also flagged rising concentration risks, with the combined weight of the 10 largest S&P 500 companies increasing sharply over time, and warned of the danger of sudden and destabilising risk unwinding.

He added that global financial assets held by banks and non-bank financial institutions have expanded rapidly, raising concerns that financial markets could face sharp corrections if global conditions tighten further.

Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran, speaking at the Economic Survey press briefing, said India’s growth story sits at the intersection of global headwinds and strong domestic potential.

Explaining the current global environment, he referred to the work of a financial adviser who had outlined how policies adopted after the 2008 financial crisis, including prolonged monetary easing, asset price support and fiscal responses, laid the ground for today’s challenges such as trade wars, tariffs, financial fragility and geopolitical tensions.

Nageswaran said the unfolding global scenario should not be seen as driven by individual leaders or personalities, but as the outcome of long-running policy choices that led to lower productivity, higher inequality and weaker growth.

He added that India’s task is to navigate this environment through reforms and prudent fiscal policy while leveraging its domestic demand and structural strengths.

Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran, speaking at the Economic Survey press briefing, said India’s energy transition is not just about adding renewable capacity but also about managing its heavy resource intensity.

He said every 1 GW of solar power requires large quantities of materials, including around 18.5 tonnes of silver, 2–3 thousand tonnes of polysilicon and over 10,000 tonnes of aluminium, along with significant energy inputs.

For wind power, he said 1 GW capacity needs about 2,866 tonnes of copper and total material movement of nearly 4.8 lakh tonnes, translating into over 1,100 heavy truckloads.

Nageswaran also flagged the scale of future needs, saying India will require around 411 GWh of energy storage by 2031–32, underlining the logistical, material and manufacturing challenges that must be addressed alongside renewable expansion.

Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran, speaking at the Economic Survey press briefing, said India faces significant skilling and structural challenges as artificial intelligence adoption accelerates.

He said employers place the highest value on foundational and soft skills such as engagement, self-efficacy, adaptability, management skills and working with others, while technology skills and digital literacy rank lower, highlighting a mismatch in current education priorities.

Nageswaran said several high-skill, hands-on sectors remain understaffed, including eldercare and nursing, public health outreach, culinary arts, early and special needs education, environmental restoration and advanced tool and die manufacturing.

He also flagged structural challenges linked to AI, including high data centre resource consumption, large financial requirements for AI development, risks to labour markets, constraints on hardware access due to geopolitics, the need for data localisation to create domestic value, and continued dependence on foreign AI models for use in public administration and critical sectors.

At the briefing, the Chief Economic Adviser warned about the mental health impact of rising digital addiction, especially among young people.

Citing ASER 2024, he said only 57% of those aged 14–16 reported using phones for educational purposes, while 76% used them for social media. Nageswaran said compulsive scrolling and social comparison are linked to anxiety and depressive symptoms, adding that social media platforms use algorithms designed to maximise user engagement and time spent online, often targeting users aged 15 to 24.

He also said states such as Andhra Pradesh and Goa are discussing measures to limit social media usage, reflecting growing concern around digital addiction and mental well-being.

Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran, speaking at the Economic Survey press briefing, said the agriculture sector is seeing new growth engines but continues to face structural challenges.

He said diversification within agriculture is being led by livestock and fisheries, with average GVA growth of 6.1% and 7.2% respectively between FY20 and FY24, compared with 4.7% for the overall agriculture sector and 4% for crops.

However, Nageswaran highlighted key bottlenecks, including imbalanced fertiliser use that weakens soil health, excess stocks due to rice and wheat procurement, high carrying costs that crowd out productive spending, incentives that skew crop choices and slow diversification, and weak markets and value chains for alternative crops that raise transition risks.

Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran, speaking at the Economic Survey press briefing, said long-term fiscal sustainability will require consistency in the Centre’s efforts and greater prudence and commitment by the states.

He said the Centre’s Special Assistance to States for Capital Investment (SASCI) has successfully incentivised states to maintain capital expenditure at around 2.4% of GDP, but warned that rising state-level deficits reflect growing pressures on state finances.

Nageswaran said income transfers support households, but their impact is strongest when combined with productivity-enhancing investments, adding that fiscal indiscipline at the state level can weaken growth prospects and raise sovereign borrowing costs.

Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran, speaking at the Economic Survey press briefing, said the recent weakness in the rupee is largely due to rising global uncertainty and external capital flow dynamics rather than domestic macroeconomic weaknesses.

He said as an emerging market and capital importer, India’s capital account reflects shifts in global risk sentiment, with volatility seen in portfolio investment flows even as fundamentals remain stable.

The Survey shows that while net FDI flows have fluctuated and portfolio investments have seen sharp swings, the currency movement mirrors global factors such as tighter financial conditions and risk-off sentiment, underscoring that the pressure on the rupee is external in nature and not a result of macroeconomic instability at home.

Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran, speaking at the Economic Survey press briefing, said India has seen a major expansion in digital connectivity over the past decade.

He said data costs have fallen sharply from Rs 269 per GB in 2014 to Rs 8.3 per GB in 2025, helping improve access to digital services. The number of broadband subscribers rose from 6.1 crore in 2014 to 100.4 crore in 2025 (as of November).

Nageswaran also said the Centralised Right of Way portal, launched in 2022, has reduced approval time for telecom infrastructure from 451 days in 2019 to 40 days in 2025.

On rural connectivity, he said 13,145 mobile towers are now functional, 19,901 villages have access to 4G mobile services, and 2.14 lakh gram panchayats have been connected with broadband.

Addressing the media, the Chief Economic Adviser said growth momentum strengthened alongside a sharp easing in inflation.

He said real GDP growth rose to 7.4% in FY26, supported by stronger private consumption and investment. At the same time, headline CPI inflation fell to 1.7% in FY26 (up to December), while core inflation excluding gold and silver eased to 2.9%, indicating softer underlying price pressures.

Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran, speaking at the Economic Survey press briefing, said India’s growth has been broad-based and inclusive.

He said over 81% of rural households now have access to tap water, more than 2.9 crore houses have been constructed, and 2.76 crore property cards have been issued under the SVAMITVA scheme.

On healthcare, Nageswaran said 14.32 crore beneficiaries are registered on the U-Win portal, 42.78 crore Ayushman Bharat cards have been issued and over 1.8 lakh Ayushman Arogya Mandirs are operational.

On education, he said learning outcomes have improved at the primary level, with a higher share of students achieving grade-level reading and maths skills, while around 25 crore students are enrolled across 14.7 lakh schools nationwide.

The Chief Economic Adviser said public finances are on a firmer footing, pointing to a credible fiscal consolidation path. He said the fiscal deficit is projected to decline to 4.4% of GDP in FY26 (BE), while the primary deficit has also narrowed.

Gross tax revenue increased from a pre-pandemic average of 10.8% of GDP to 11.5% post-pandemic, with personal income tax collections rising from 2.4% to 3.3% of GDP. The number of income tax filers grew from 6.9 crore in FY22 to 9.2 crore in FY25, while effective capital expenditure rose from 2.7% to 3.9% of GDP.

Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran, speaking at the Economic Survey press briefing, said employment conditions have improved alongside structural reforms.

He said the overall unemployment rate fell from 6% in 2017–18 to 3.2% in 2023–24. Female labour force participation rose sharply during the same period, increasing from 23.3% to 41.7%. Monthly data for FY26 shows unemployment easing further to 4.9% by December, reflecting improving labour market conditions.

Rumki Majumdar, Economist at Deloitte India, said the Economic Survey highlights the need for India to closely monitor public debt levels even as revenues improve.

“India will have to keep an eye on the level of public debt,” she said, adding that revenues have risen from around 8.5% of GDP before the pandemic to 9.1% post-pandemic due to a wider tax base and deeper formalisation.

Majumdar said the quality of spending has improved, with revenue expenditure falling from 13.6% to 10.9% of GDP and capital outlays nearly doubling to Rs 10.5 lakh crore in FY26 (BE), helping reduce the general government debt ratio by over 7 percentage points since 2020.

Commenting on the Economic Survey 2026, Ranen Banerjee, Partner and Leader – Economic Advisory at PwC India, said the document captures India’s current phase through what he called “strategic sobriety” and the idea of “running the sprint and marathon at the same time."

He said the Survey offers an honest assessment of achievements and course corrections, describing the government as an “entrepreneurial state” focused on learning and agile policymaking.

Banerjee noted that inflation has remained contained due to supply-side efficiencies backed by high capital spending, but warned of risks to exchange rates from negative capital flows and the high cost of capital, especially due to state-level deficits.

He added that with potential GDP growth raised to 7% and FY27 growth pegged at 6.8%–7.2%, the Budget will be closely watched for steps to cut debt, reform customs duties to support MSMEs, and push states towards fiscal discipline.

Commenting on the Economic Survey 2026, Dhiraj Agrawal, CBO of Mufin Green Finance, said the projection of 6.8% to 7.2% GDP growth for FY27 confirms India’s position among the fastest-growing major economies despite global uncertainty.

He said rising industrial output, which touched 7.8% in December 2025, underlines the need to improve competitiveness in manufacturing.

Agrawal added that with the India-EU Free Trade Agreement expected to open access to a $27 trillion market, quality-driven production and global compliance will be critical for Indian exporters to gain long-term benefits.

The Economic Survey 2025–26 said India has diversified its crude oil import sources over the past year. During FY26 (April to November), crude oil imports from countries such as Libya, Egypt, Brazil, the US and Brunei rose sharply compared with the same period last year, while imports from Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Venezuela declined, reflecting a broader shift in sourcing strategy.

According to the Economic Survey 2026, India’s total trade deficit amounted to USD 94.7 billion in FY25. The Survey noted that total imports rose 7.4% year-on-year to USD 919.9 billion, reflecting steady domestic demand amid global uncertainty.

The Economic Survey 2026 said services exports, including IT services, global capability centres and professional services, continue to outperform goods exports. In FY25, services exports touched a record USD 387.5 billion, growing 13.6% year-on-year. Services imports also rose by 11.4% to USD 198.7 billion during the year.

The Economic Survey 2026 said India’s inflation is expected to rise gradually in the coming fiscal year but stay within the Reserve Bank of India’s target range.

It noted that while a weaker rupee could lead to imported inflation, the impact is likely to be limited due to soft global commodity prices, especially crude oil, and easing food inflation.

The Survey added that prices of metals such as gold, silver and copper remain firm and could keep core inflation elevated. Both the RBI and the International Monetary Fund have projected headline inflation to move gradually towards the 4% target over the next two years.

Commenting on the Economic Survey 2026, Sonam Srivastava, Founder and Fund Manager at Wright Research PMS, said the document points to a supportive macro-financial environment without signalling sharp policy shifts.

“The emphasis on balance sheet strength, improving asset quality and sustained credit growth suggests that banks and NBFCs enter FY27 from a position of resilience,” she said.

On growth, she said the FY27 GDP projection of 6.8% to 7.2% reflects a realistic view of India’s momentum amid global uncertainty, adding that the outlook is “stable, not euphoric,” which is constructive for long-term capital allocation.

Commenting on the Economic Survey 2025–26, Keshav Mangla, GM Business Development at Forteasia Realty, said the document should address long-standing challenges such as high input costs and delays in government processes.

He said stakeholders expect stable growth of 12% to 14% and want data-backed insights on rising urban migration and housing demand.

Mangla also called for digital land records, interest support for first-time buyers, simpler rules for co-working spaces, incentives for data centres, lower stamp duty during peak periods, climate-resilient building policies and smoother NRI funding norms, adding that the Survey should position real estate as a key pillar of Viksit Bharat.

The Economic Survey 2026 said India’s financial sector regulators must carefully balance growth with stability.

It said regulators need to remain open to global capital flows while also protecting the domestic economy from volatile external shocks, highlighting the need for a cautious and calibrated approach.

The Economic Survey 2026 said India’s economic growth accelerated despite facing steep tariff increases from the United States.

It noted that while growth forecasts were revised downward after the US imposed a total tariff of 50% on many Indian exports in 2025, actual growth turned out stronger.

The Survey said this was due to a series of structural reforms and policy measures, which helped the economy absorb the external shock and sustain momentum.

The Economic Survey 2026 warned that risks to global economic growth remain significant. It said that if the artificial intelligence boom fails to deliver expected productivity gains, it could lead to a correction in high asset valuations and trigger wider financial stress.

The Survey also said prolonged trade conflicts could hurt investment and weaken global growth further, adding that while some stability exists for now, downside risks continue to dominate.

The Economic Survey 2026 said the outlook for the global economy remains dim over the medium term, with downside risks continuing to dominate. It noted that global growth is likely to stay modest, keeping commodity prices broadly stable.

The Survey added that inflation has eased across major economies, which could allow monetary policies to turn more accommodative and supportive of growth going ahead.

The Economic Survey 2025–26 has projected India’s GDP growth at 6.8% to 7.2% for FY27. In comparison, last year’s Economic Survey 2024–25 had projected growth for FY26 in the range of 6.3% to 6.8% and described the outlook as balanced.

The latest projection indicates a slightly higher growth expectation for the next financial year, even as global economic risks continue to remain a key concern.

The government has projected India’s real GDP growth in the range of 6.8% to 7.2% for FY27, according to the Economic Survey tabled in Parliament ahead of the Union Budget. The projection reflects expectations of steady domestic demand and macroeconomic stability, even as global economic conditions remain uncertain.

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman tabled the Economic Survey 2025–26 in the Lok Sabha on Wednesday, outlining the government’s assessment of the economy ahead of the Union Budget. The Survey reviews growth trends, fiscal position, inflation, external sector and key challenges facing the economy.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi said Budget 2026 marks the first Budget of the second quarter of the 21st century.

Speaking during the Budget Session, he said a quarter of the century has passed and the next 25 years will be crucial to achieving the goal of Viksit Bharat 2047. He also noted that Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is presenting the Budget in Parliament for the ninth consecutive time, calling it a proud moment in the country’s parliamentary history.

Edul Patel, CEO of Mudrex, said India’s crypto investors are moving towards a more disciplined, long-term approach. Ahead of the 2026 Union Budget, he said aligning regulations with this shift could strengthen the domestic crypto ecosystem.

"While the 2022 Union Budget gave the sector formal recognition, measures such as the 1% TDS on transactions pushed trading activity offshore, reducing transparency within the domestic ecosystem," he said. 

Patel said the 1% TDS on transactions has pushed trading offshore and reduced transparency, while the ban on setting off losses has limited sound portfolio management. He suggested cutting TDS to 0.1% and allowing loss offsetting to encourage responsible participation and support a compliant crypto market in India.

The Economic Survey 2026 will be tabled in Parliament on Thursday, setting the stage for the Union Budget 2026-27. Prepared under the guidance of Chief Economic Adviser V. Anantha Nageswaran, the Survey is the government’s annual deep dive into the state of the economy.

It explains how India performed over the past financial year, identifies the challenges that shaped growth, and lays out the opportunities that can guide policy decisions in the year ahead.

While the survey does not announce new policies, it provides the economic framework against which the upcoming budget will be interpreted.

Read our detailed report here. 

Radhika Iyer Talati, Founder of Anahata Organic, said Budget 2026 is an opportunity to strengthen India’s organic and wellness startup ecosystem.

She said rationalising GST on natural and health-focused products, along with stronger incentives for research and development in plant-based and preventive health solutions, would help founder-led startups scale responsibly.

Talati also called for predictable policies, quicker access to innovation funding and dedicated green innovation support to align entrepreneurship with long-term public health and environmental goals.

Live coverage of the Economic Survey 2025–26 can be watched on India Today’s official website and YouTube channel.

Viewers can also tune in to Sansad TV on YouTube and Doordarshan channels for the live feed from Parliament’s Budget Session. In addition, the Union Budget website, the Finance Ministry’s official social media handles and the Press Information Bureau social media pages will stream the proceedings live.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi said the current quarter has begun on a positive note, with India emerging as a source of hope and attraction globally, at the start of the budget session. 

Referring to the Free Trade Agreement signed between India and the European Union, he said it reflects a promising future for Indian youth and manufacturers, adding that domestic producers should use the opportunity to strengthen their capabilities.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi said the government is moving faster on reforms as Parliament began the Budget Session.

Speaking at the start of the session, he said the government is identified with “reform, perform and transform” and has now boarded the “reform express”, adding that the country is moving beyond long-pending issues and taking long-term solutions forward.

The Economic Survey is tabled before the Union Budget to provide the economic background for the government’s budget decisions. It presents the government’s assessment of growth, inflation, fiscal position, the external sector, jobs and performance across key sectors.

While it does not announce tax changes or policy measures, the Survey explains the economic conditions in which the Budget is framed, highlights challenges and opportunities, and reflects the Finance Ministry’s official economic thinking ahead of the Budget.

The Economic Survey is the Finance Ministry’s annual review of how the Indian economy performed in the past year. Prepared under the Chief Economic Adviser, it analyses key indicators such as growth, inflation, jobs, fiscal trends and sector-wise performance. Released a day before the Union Budget, it provides the economic context for upcoming policy decisions. The Economic Survey 2026 PDF will be made public at 11 am today and can be downloaded from official government websites once released.

The Economic Survey 2025-26 will be presented ahead of the Union Budget, and viewers can tune in across multiple platforms for the live coverage. Those who want to watch the complete presentation can stay with India Today on our official website, TV, or on our YouTube channel, where the live stream will run as the Finance Ministry releases the document.

The Survey will also be broadcast on Sansad TV’s YouTube channel and across Doordarshan’s TV network, which will carry the official Parliament feed from the Budget Session.

Viewers can also watch the livestream through the official Union Budget website (indiabudget.gov.in). The Finance Ministry’s social media handles, along with the Press Information Bureau’s (PIB) official accounts, will share the live video feed and real-time updates as the Survey is tabled.

Stay tuned for expert analysis, key highlights and instant summaries as the Economic Survey 2026 is unveiled.

CEA V Anantha Nageswaran has also said India is expected to close FY26 with real GDP growth of about 7.4%. He noted that macroeconomic stability has been maintained even as the Union government has reduced its fiscal deficit as a share of GDP since the pandemic, with better quality public spending and higher investment in infrastructure.

The Economic Survey 2024–25 had projected India’s real GDP growth at 6.4% for FY25, supported by steady performance in agriculture and services, along with improving rural demand.

It described the outlook for FY26 as balanced, while flagging risks from geopolitical tensions, global trade pressures and commodity price shocks. The survey also said India needs to improve global competitiveness through structural reforms and deregulation to strengthen medium-term growth prospects.

Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran said the Economic Survey 2025–26 will be longer than usual.

Writing in a column in Mint on the morning of the Survey’s release, he said the current geopolitical environment points to a difficult period ahead, signalling a cautious global backdrop for India’s economic assessment.

Main focus areas of the economic survey include key economic trends that shape growth and development, major challenges such as structural, sectoral and global concerns, policy priorities to deal with these issues, and the overall economic outlook.

The Economic Survey acts as a background document that assesses the economy honestly and guides future policymaking and budget planning.