War and weather threaten India's kharif season
Despite a rise in production in recent years, India still depends on fertiliser imports to meet its demand.
As India heads into the kharif sowing season, multiple risks have emerged. According to the Investment Information and Credit Rating Agency, concerns over a below-normal monsoon, the possible development of El Nino conditions, and fertiliser supply disruptions linked to the US-Iran war could affect agricultural output, rural demand and food prices in FY2027. These factors may weaken the agriculture sector growth, currently estimated at three per cent for FY27.
WEAKER MONSOON CONCERNS
The India Meteorological Department has forecast a below-normal monsoon for 2026. The agency said weaker rainfall could hurt kharif sowing, reduce reservoir replenishment, and increase pressure on food inflation. It also highlighted that possible El Nino conditions during the monsoon season might affect agricultural production.
The Indian Council of Agricultural Research found that many districts had lower rainfall during El Nino years, especially in July and August, which are crucial months for kharif crops.
The study noted that rice, maize, pearl millet, and sorghum are highly sensitive to monsoon variability, with rainfall deficits hurting productivity. The study also identified 77 rice-growing districts and 65 maize-growing districts where yields fell by more than 10 per cent during El Nino years.
FOREIGN FERTILISERS, INDIAN RISKS
Apart from weather-related uncertainties, India’s farm sector also remains exposed to global supply disruptions through its dependence on imported fertilisers.
According to the Department of Fertilisers data, around 80 per cent of urea consumption and nearly 85 per cent of NPK fertiliser demand are met through domestic production. However, DAP fertilisers remain heavily import-dependent, with only around 40 per cent supplied locally.
India has reduced its dependence on imported urea in recent years. Urea production increased from 244.6 lakh tonnes in 2019–20 to 306.7 lakh tonnes in 2024–25, while imports declined from 92.4 lakh tonnes to 81.3 lakh tonnes.
Meanwhile, DAP remains a concern. Domestic production fell from 45.5 lakh tonnes to 37.7 lakh tonnes during the same period, keeping import dependence high, although imports increased slightly from 55.5 lakh tonnes to 58.6 lakh tonnes.
NPK production rose from 93.3 lakh tonnes to 121.1 lakh tonnes between 2019–20 and 2024–25. However, imports also increased sharply from 11.7 lakh tonnes to 28.7 lakh tonnes.
WHY IT MATTERS
According to a March 2026 report from the Ministry of Chemicals and Fertilisers, nearly 46 per cent of the population relies on agriculture and allied sectors for their livelihood. The sector contributes about 16 per cent to the country’s GDP.
Fertilisers are a key input that sustains crop productivity and food supply. Hence, any disruption in fertiliser availability or a sharp rise in prices during the kharif season could affect agricultural output, rural incomes, and food inflation.
As India heads into the kharif sowing season, multiple risks have emerged. According to the Investment Information and Credit Rating Agency, concerns over a below-normal monsoon, the possible development of El Nino conditions, and fertiliser supply disruptions linked to the US-Iran war could affect agricultural output, rural demand and food prices in FY2027. These factors may weaken the agriculture sector growth, currently estimated at three per cent for FY27.
WEAKER MONSOON CONCERNS
The India Meteorological Department has forecast a below-normal monsoon for 2026. The agency said weaker rainfall could hurt kharif sowing, reduce reservoir replenishment, and increase pressure on food inflation. It also highlighted that possible El Nino conditions during the monsoon season might affect agricultural production.
The Indian Council of Agricultural Research found that many districts had lower rainfall during El Nino years, especially in July and August, which are crucial months for kharif crops.
The study noted that rice, maize, pearl millet, and sorghum are highly sensitive to monsoon variability, with rainfall deficits hurting productivity. The study also identified 77 rice-growing districts and 65 maize-growing districts where yields fell by more than 10 per cent during El Nino years.
FOREIGN FERTILISERS, INDIAN RISKS
Apart from weather-related uncertainties, India’s farm sector also remains exposed to global supply disruptions through its dependence on imported fertilisers.
According to the Department of Fertilisers data, around 80 per cent of urea consumption and nearly 85 per cent of NPK fertiliser demand are met through domestic production. However, DAP fertilisers remain heavily import-dependent, with only around 40 per cent supplied locally.
India has reduced its dependence on imported urea in recent years. Urea production increased from 244.6 lakh tonnes in 2019–20 to 306.7 lakh tonnes in 2024–25, while imports declined from 92.4 lakh tonnes to 81.3 lakh tonnes.
Meanwhile, DAP remains a concern. Domestic production fell from 45.5 lakh tonnes to 37.7 lakh tonnes during the same period, keeping import dependence high, although imports increased slightly from 55.5 lakh tonnes to 58.6 lakh tonnes.
NPK production rose from 93.3 lakh tonnes to 121.1 lakh tonnes between 2019–20 and 2024–25. However, imports also increased sharply from 11.7 lakh tonnes to 28.7 lakh tonnes.
WHY IT MATTERS
According to a March 2026 report from the Ministry of Chemicals and Fertilisers, nearly 46 per cent of the population relies on agriculture and allied sectors for their livelihood. The sector contributes about 16 per cent to the country’s GDP.
Fertilisers are a key input that sustains crop productivity and food supply. Hence, any disruption in fertiliser availability or a sharp rise in prices during the kharif season could affect agricultural output, rural incomes, and food inflation.
