Money man vs mass leader: Will Shivakumar over Siddaramaiah bet pay off?
Siddaramaiah's second term appears to be headed for an abrupt end amid strong buzz that the Congress is preparing to replace him with his bete noire, DK Shivakumar. Will replacing a mass leader with a pan-Karnataka appeal with an organisation man like Shivakumar pay off for Congress?
Call it a twist of fate or Karnataka's political curse, no chief minister has managed to complete two full terms in office. The second stints of S Nijalingappa and Devaraj Urs were both cut short. It was widely expected that Siddaramaiah would break that jinx. But his tenure too now appears headed for an abrupt end amid strong buzz that the Congress is preparing to replace him with his bete noire, DK Shivakumar, and move him to the Rajya Sabha. With elections barely two years away, replacing a mass leader with pan-Karnataka appeal could prove a risky gamble for the Congress.
The fact that DK Shivakumar, a moneybag politician considered close to the Congress high command, was overlooked for Siddaramaiah for the top post in 2023 speaks volumes about his importance in the party. In fact, Siddaramaiah is the only OBC Chief Minister among all Congress-ruled states. Shivakumar, on the other hand, is from the dominant Vokkaliga community. Replacing Siddaramaiah abruptly will be bad optics for Congress amid Rahul Gandhi's social justice campaign.
THE IMPORTANCE OF SIDDARAMAIAH
The Congress knows well that Siddaramaiah is no ordinary regional satrap. He remains Karnataka Congress's tallest leader, much like what BS Yediyurappa was for the BJP — a mass figure with influence cutting across regions and communities. This despite the firebrand leader being a first-generation politician from a farming family.
Siddaramaiah's influence among the backwards, minorities and the AHINDA coalition (Kannada acronym for minorities, backward classes and Dalits), which he carefully built over decades, is unmatched. As per the state's caste survey, SC-STs constitute 25% of the population, while Muslims are around 13%. Kurubas, the community Siddaramaiah belongs to, constitute 7% of the population.
In the 2023 polls, the AHINDA coalition's firm backing of Siddaramaiah helped Congress circumvent the state's otherwise bipolar caste landscape - the Vokkaliga-Lingayat divide. It has been one of the biggest reasons why the Congress high command has consistently backed Siddaramaiah over Shivakumar.
Despite joining the Congress only in 2006 after stints in various Janata Parivar factions, Siddaramaiah has left a mark in Karnataka politics through his several Bhagya schemes, particularly the Anna Bhagya, and also in getting a separate flag for Karnataka.
What endeared him to the masses is his simple lifestyle and trademark attire of a white kurta and panche (a sort of lungi). It carved an image of a rustic politician in the minds of the people.
Now, despite being at the fag end of his career, 77-year-old Siddaramaiah remains a political centre of gravity in the state. Thus, the Congress can ill afford to elbow him out abruptly. It could have sparked dissent from his loyalists and MLAs and, perhaps, another spectacle of resort politics.
ONCE BITTEN, TWICE SHY
It is exactly why the party likely offered him a graceful off-ramp through the Rajya Sabha route. The optics are more about repositioning rather than removal. If Siddaramaiah indeed agrees to it, the Congress will have two of its tallest southern leaders (the other being Mallikarjun Kharge) in the Rajya Sabha.
It will be a boost to the party as it looks to consolidate its footprint in the south after its win in Kerala and being part of the Vijay-led TVK coalition in Tamil Nadu.
Crucially, by bringing Siddaramaiah to Delhi, the party will tactfully avoid a confrontation between the duo, whose tug-of-war over the top post has been raging for months now.
It is a case of once bitten, twice shy. The Congress is well aware of how the Ashok Gehlot vs Sachin Pilot episode played out in Rajasthan a few years ago, when the Tonk MLA camped with around 18 rebel MLAs in Haryana in 2020.
SHIVAKUMAR'S MOMENT IN THE SUN?
The move is expected to pave the way for a smoother succession route for Shivakumar - whose organisational nous is believed to have played a key role in Congress's 2023 comeback.
Shivakumar, however, is no lightweight. He offers the Congress what Siddaramaiah arguably lacked -- a leader deeply rooted in the party organisation, with strong control over its machinery and age still on his side. Shivakumar is 64 and can be Congress's long-term bet in Karnataka.
He has long been a chief minister in waiting and enjoys a wide support in the Congress. This is particularly due to Siddaramaiah still being seen as an "outsider" by a section of the Congress old guard. Siddaramaiah, who was formerly with the JD(S), joined Congress only in 2006. But his growth in the party has been stupendous, serving as deputy chief minister and then chief minister twice.
Despite the success, the nine-time MLA lost two Lok Sabha elections. It prompted him to stick to state politics, which, as we have seen, earned him hefty dividends. It is perhaps why Siddaramaiah has always been reluctant to shift to national politics.
Where Shivakumar scores is his organisational control. It is exactly why he is also considered Congress's ace troubleshooter. Wherever internal dissent has threatened Congress governments, Shivakumar has been the high command's 'Man Friday'. His closeness to the Gandhis is well known.
Moreover, he is one of the richest politicians in the country, with declared assets of over Rs 1,400 crore. It is why he called Congress's "moneybag politician".
Shivakumar hails from the powerful Vokkaliga community. His pull is believed to have weaned a large chunk of those votes away from the JD(S) to the Congress in 2023. However, unlike Siddaramaiah, he is not considered a mass leader. His influence is believed to be restricted to the Old Mysuru region.
Undoubtedly, Siddaramaiah has been more artful in politics. It was evident in 2013, when he managed to pip veteran Mallikarjun Kharge to become the chief minister. But Shivakumar is no pushover, and with age by his side, he remains a long-term prospect for the Congress. Will the gamble pay off? Only time will tell.
Call it a twist of fate or Karnataka's political curse, no chief minister has managed to complete two full terms in office. The second stints of S Nijalingappa and Devaraj Urs were both cut short. It was widely expected that Siddaramaiah would break that jinx. But his tenure too now appears headed for an abrupt end amid strong buzz that the Congress is preparing to replace him with his bete noire, DK Shivakumar, and move him to the Rajya Sabha. With elections barely two years away, replacing a mass leader with pan-Karnataka appeal could prove a risky gamble for the Congress.
The fact that DK Shivakumar, a moneybag politician considered close to the Congress high command, was overlooked for Siddaramaiah for the top post in 2023 speaks volumes about his importance in the party. In fact, Siddaramaiah is the only OBC Chief Minister among all Congress-ruled states. Shivakumar, on the other hand, is from the dominant Vokkaliga community. Replacing Siddaramaiah abruptly will be bad optics for Congress amid Rahul Gandhi's social justice campaign.
THE IMPORTANCE OF SIDDARAMAIAH
The Congress knows well that Siddaramaiah is no ordinary regional satrap. He remains Karnataka Congress's tallest leader, much like what BS Yediyurappa was for the BJP — a mass figure with influence cutting across regions and communities. This despite the firebrand leader being a first-generation politician from a farming family.
Siddaramaiah's influence among the backwards, minorities and the AHINDA coalition (Kannada acronym for minorities, backward classes and Dalits), which he carefully built over decades, is unmatched. As per the state's caste survey, SC-STs constitute 25% of the population, while Muslims are around 13%. Kurubas, the community Siddaramaiah belongs to, constitute 7% of the population.
In the 2023 polls, the AHINDA coalition's firm backing of Siddaramaiah helped Congress circumvent the state's otherwise bipolar caste landscape - the Vokkaliga-Lingayat divide. It has been one of the biggest reasons why the Congress high command has consistently backed Siddaramaiah over Shivakumar.
Despite joining the Congress only in 2006 after stints in various Janata Parivar factions, Siddaramaiah has left a mark in Karnataka politics through his several Bhagya schemes, particularly the Anna Bhagya, and also in getting a separate flag for Karnataka.
What endeared him to the masses is his simple lifestyle and trademark attire of a white kurta and panche (a sort of lungi). It carved an image of a rustic politician in the minds of the people.
Now, despite being at the fag end of his career, 77-year-old Siddaramaiah remains a political centre of gravity in the state. Thus, the Congress can ill afford to elbow him out abruptly. It could have sparked dissent from his loyalists and MLAs and, perhaps, another spectacle of resort politics.
ONCE BITTEN, TWICE SHY
It is exactly why the party likely offered him a graceful off-ramp through the Rajya Sabha route. The optics are more about repositioning rather than removal. If Siddaramaiah indeed agrees to it, the Congress will have two of its tallest southern leaders (the other being Mallikarjun Kharge) in the Rajya Sabha.
It will be a boost to the party as it looks to consolidate its footprint in the south after its win in Kerala and being part of the Vijay-led TVK coalition in Tamil Nadu.
Crucially, by bringing Siddaramaiah to Delhi, the party will tactfully avoid a confrontation between the duo, whose tug-of-war over the top post has been raging for months now.
It is a case of once bitten, twice shy. The Congress is well aware of how the Ashok Gehlot vs Sachin Pilot episode played out in Rajasthan a few years ago, when the Tonk MLA camped with around 18 rebel MLAs in Haryana in 2020.
SHIVAKUMAR'S MOMENT IN THE SUN?
The move is expected to pave the way for a smoother succession route for Shivakumar - whose organisational nous is believed to have played a key role in Congress's 2023 comeback.
Shivakumar, however, is no lightweight. He offers the Congress what Siddaramaiah arguably lacked -- a leader deeply rooted in the party organisation, with strong control over its machinery and age still on his side. Shivakumar is 64 and can be Congress's long-term bet in Karnataka.
He has long been a chief minister in waiting and enjoys a wide support in the Congress. This is particularly due to Siddaramaiah still being seen as an "outsider" by a section of the Congress old guard. Siddaramaiah, who was formerly with the JD(S), joined Congress only in 2006. But his growth in the party has been stupendous, serving as deputy chief minister and then chief minister twice.
Despite the success, the nine-time MLA lost two Lok Sabha elections. It prompted him to stick to state politics, which, as we have seen, earned him hefty dividends. It is perhaps why Siddaramaiah has always been reluctant to shift to national politics.
Where Shivakumar scores is his organisational control. It is exactly why he is also considered Congress's ace troubleshooter. Wherever internal dissent has threatened Congress governments, Shivakumar has been the high command's 'Man Friday'. His closeness to the Gandhis is well known.
Moreover, he is one of the richest politicians in the country, with declared assets of over Rs 1,400 crore. It is why he called Congress's "moneybag politician".
Shivakumar hails from the powerful Vokkaliga community. His pull is believed to have weaned a large chunk of those votes away from the JD(S) to the Congress in 2023. However, unlike Siddaramaiah, he is not considered a mass leader. His influence is believed to be restricted to the Old Mysuru region.
Undoubtedly, Siddaramaiah has been more artful in politics. It was evident in 2013, when he managed to pip veteran Mallikarjun Kharge to become the chief minister. But Shivakumar is no pushover, and with age by his side, he remains a long-term prospect for the Congress. Will the gamble pay off? Only time will tell.
