EPS bets on NDA chemistry, strongman persona in his toughest Tamil Nadu battle
In a high-stakes three-cornered Tamil Nadu battle, Edappadi Palaniswami bets on grit and ground game to outlast both Stalin's incumbency and Vijay's surge.
Inside the AIADMK war room, surprising as it may sound, there is a feeling of gratitude towards Vijay. Reason being, the Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), the party says, has succeeded in clearly identifying the ''theeya sakthi'' (evil power) in the Tamil Nadu election.
''In the next one week, the people will decide who the hero is,'' says a senior member of the AIADMK thinktank. The belief is that that political hero will be Edappadi Palaniswami.
Are Palaniswami and his party reading the tea leaves correctly or are they chasing a mirage? Talk to people on the ground and you would find a significant number of women voters who voted for the AIADMK in 2021, say they will vote for Vijay this time around. There is evidence to suggest that the anti-incumbency vote is getting split between the TVK and AIADMK and that works to the ruling DMK's advantage. At the same time, anecdotal evidence indicates that while the TVK has emerged as a force to reckon with in the urban and semi-urban pockets, the party of the two leaves has the edge in the rural areas.
But anyone who has followed Palaniswami's political trajectory would only be foolish to write him off. Here is a man seen in his term as chief minister as a compromise choice, hemmed on all sides by other claimants for power and prominence. That list included the likes of former chief minister O Panneerselvam, VK Sasikala, TTV Dhinakaran and even KA Sengottaiyan. But EPS, trained in the Jayalalithaa template of internal autocracy, successfully sidelined all of them, only aligning with Dhinakaran's AMMK now as part of the NDA.
It is a fact that Tamil Nadu has always liked tough leaders capable of facing strong adversaries. The argument goes that of the three claimants for the post of Chief Minister – Palaniswami, MK Stalin and Vijay, EPS has come across as a tough leader. He restricted the ambitious BJP to just 27 seats. He made Amit Shah announce his name as the chief ministerial face a year before the elections. He has had his way, be it on refusal to accommodate OPS or even on K Annamalai, who the BJP had to remove as state unit chief to mollify Palaniswami.
The AIADMK wants this tough image to stick. The DMK knows it as well, which is why it has made a concerted attempt to label Palaniswami as ''Delhi's slave''. That is why MK Stalin on Monday spoke about how, after "the demise of Mummy (a sarcastic reference to how Jayalalithaa was called Amma by her followers), Palaniswami has made the AIADMK a dummy''.
Stalin wanted to point out that Jayalalithaa, if she were alive, would have opposed delimitation in its proposed form, just like she was critical of GST and NEET and in contrast, Palaniswami was now silent. That is why Udhayanidhi Stalin, at virtually every meeting, plays to the gallery and shows Palaniswami's 2017 photograph, falling at Sasikala's feet. And that is why Palaniswami has been at his aggressive best giving it back to the Stalins, engaging in a war of words.
Tamil Nadu elections have always been fairly presidential. Karunanidhi vs MGR. Karunanidhi vs Jayalalithaa. And in 2026, Stalin vs Palaniswami vs Vijay. Yes, local factors and candidates matter, but this election is about the individual personas of the three chief minister aspirants. EPS had toured close to 200 constituencies even before the election schedule was announced and that is a factor that could weigh in on the anti-DMK voter who would make an informed choice.
Unlike Stalin, who comes from a lineage of political privilege, Palaniswami rose through the AIADMK ranks. EPS does not miss an opportunity to reaffirm his farming roots and mocks Stalin for not knowing the ABCD of agriculture. Unlike Vijay, who is not seen in public more than three times a week, EPS is in a different district each day, staying accessible.
Make no mistake, this is Palaniswami's election for political survival. The DMK has labelled him as a politician who has seen 10 electoral defeats and predicts 2026 will be his 11th. The knives will undoubtedly be out for EPS should he lose. Sasikala has floated a party and fielded candidates primarily with an eye to hurting the AIADMK in southern Tamil Nadu. Nothing would please OPS more than seeing Palaniswami lose relevance. Sengottaiyan has a score to settle with EPS as well. EPS knows that maintaining his grip over the AIADMK would be tough in the event of a defeat.
What is working in the AIADMK's favour is a surprisingly well-coordinated campaign by the four big Tamil Nadu guns of the NDA – Palaniswami, Annamalai, Dhinakaran and Anbumani Ramadoss. Unlike the TVK, which is dependent solely on Vijay's charisma, or the DMK, which banks heavily on the Stalin father-son duo for the heavy lifting. Add Narendra Modi to the mix and the NDA are packing a punch.
In 2021, Palaniswami scored big only on his home ground of the Kongu belt, as a result of which the perception gained ground that the party is only an outfit of Palaniswami's Gounder community. Out of the 57 seats in this western Tamil Nadu belt, the NDA won 41 and the AIADMK share in that score was 33. In the KTCC (Kanchipuram-Tiruvallur-Chengalpattu-Chennai) belt, Cuddalore and the delta, the AIADMK score was in single digits out of 80 plus seats. This time around, the AIADMK believes that, powered by the return of the Vanniyar vote and the resentment among farmers in the Cauvery delta, the North and Delta regions will be the new West.
Even in Chennai, where it failed to open its account five years ago, the NDA fancies its chances in four seats, though realistically speaking, its best chance is in the reserved seat of Thiru Vi.Ka.Nagar where Porkodi Armstrong, widow of the slain BSP chief K Armstrong, has been fielded.
Stalin is chasing history as the only time the DMK has won back-to-back assembly elections was in 1971. Vijay is trying to emerge as the neo-MGR and do what 'Puratchi Thalaivar' (Revolutionary Leader) MGR did in 1977. 2026 is Palaniswami's opportunity to step out of Jayalalithaa's shadow and cast the AIADMK as his party. He turns 72 on May 12 and nothing would make him more happy than an early birthday present from the people of Tamil Nadu on May 4.
Inside the AIADMK war room, surprising as it may sound, there is a feeling of gratitude towards Vijay. Reason being, the Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), the party says, has succeeded in clearly identifying the ''theeya sakthi'' (evil power) in the Tamil Nadu election.
''In the next one week, the people will decide who the hero is,'' says a senior member of the AIADMK thinktank. The belief is that that political hero will be Edappadi Palaniswami.
Are Palaniswami and his party reading the tea leaves correctly or are they chasing a mirage? Talk to people on the ground and you would find a significant number of women voters who voted for the AIADMK in 2021, say they will vote for Vijay this time around. There is evidence to suggest that the anti-incumbency vote is getting split between the TVK and AIADMK and that works to the ruling DMK's advantage. At the same time, anecdotal evidence indicates that while the TVK has emerged as a force to reckon with in the urban and semi-urban pockets, the party of the two leaves has the edge in the rural areas.
But anyone who has followed Palaniswami's political trajectory would only be foolish to write him off. Here is a man seen in his term as chief minister as a compromise choice, hemmed on all sides by other claimants for power and prominence. That list included the likes of former chief minister O Panneerselvam, VK Sasikala, TTV Dhinakaran and even KA Sengottaiyan. But EPS, trained in the Jayalalithaa template of internal autocracy, successfully sidelined all of them, only aligning with Dhinakaran's AMMK now as part of the NDA.
It is a fact that Tamil Nadu has always liked tough leaders capable of facing strong adversaries. The argument goes that of the three claimants for the post of Chief Minister – Palaniswami, MK Stalin and Vijay, EPS has come across as a tough leader. He restricted the ambitious BJP to just 27 seats. He made Amit Shah announce his name as the chief ministerial face a year before the elections. He has had his way, be it on refusal to accommodate OPS or even on K Annamalai, who the BJP had to remove as state unit chief to mollify Palaniswami.
The AIADMK wants this tough image to stick. The DMK knows it as well, which is why it has made a concerted attempt to label Palaniswami as ''Delhi's slave''. That is why MK Stalin on Monday spoke about how, after "the demise of Mummy (a sarcastic reference to how Jayalalithaa was called Amma by her followers), Palaniswami has made the AIADMK a dummy''.
Stalin wanted to point out that Jayalalithaa, if she were alive, would have opposed delimitation in its proposed form, just like she was critical of GST and NEET and in contrast, Palaniswami was now silent. That is why Udhayanidhi Stalin, at virtually every meeting, plays to the gallery and shows Palaniswami's 2017 photograph, falling at Sasikala's feet. And that is why Palaniswami has been at his aggressive best giving it back to the Stalins, engaging in a war of words.
Tamil Nadu elections have always been fairly presidential. Karunanidhi vs MGR. Karunanidhi vs Jayalalithaa. And in 2026, Stalin vs Palaniswami vs Vijay. Yes, local factors and candidates matter, but this election is about the individual personas of the three chief minister aspirants. EPS had toured close to 200 constituencies even before the election schedule was announced and that is a factor that could weigh in on the anti-DMK voter who would make an informed choice.
Unlike Stalin, who comes from a lineage of political privilege, Palaniswami rose through the AIADMK ranks. EPS does not miss an opportunity to reaffirm his farming roots and mocks Stalin for not knowing the ABCD of agriculture. Unlike Vijay, who is not seen in public more than three times a week, EPS is in a different district each day, staying accessible.
Make no mistake, this is Palaniswami's election for political survival. The DMK has labelled him as a politician who has seen 10 electoral defeats and predicts 2026 will be his 11th. The knives will undoubtedly be out for EPS should he lose. Sasikala has floated a party and fielded candidates primarily with an eye to hurting the AIADMK in southern Tamil Nadu. Nothing would please OPS more than seeing Palaniswami lose relevance. Sengottaiyan has a score to settle with EPS as well. EPS knows that maintaining his grip over the AIADMK would be tough in the event of a defeat.
What is working in the AIADMK's favour is a surprisingly well-coordinated campaign by the four big Tamil Nadu guns of the NDA – Palaniswami, Annamalai, Dhinakaran and Anbumani Ramadoss. Unlike the TVK, which is dependent solely on Vijay's charisma, or the DMK, which banks heavily on the Stalin father-son duo for the heavy lifting. Add Narendra Modi to the mix and the NDA are packing a punch.
In 2021, Palaniswami scored big only on his home ground of the Kongu belt, as a result of which the perception gained ground that the party is only an outfit of Palaniswami's Gounder community. Out of the 57 seats in this western Tamil Nadu belt, the NDA won 41 and the AIADMK share in that score was 33. In the KTCC (Kanchipuram-Tiruvallur-Chengalpattu-Chennai) belt, Cuddalore and the delta, the AIADMK score was in single digits out of 80 plus seats. This time around, the AIADMK believes that, powered by the return of the Vanniyar vote and the resentment among farmers in the Cauvery delta, the North and Delta regions will be the new West.
Even in Chennai, where it failed to open its account five years ago, the NDA fancies its chances in four seats, though realistically speaking, its best chance is in the reserved seat of Thiru Vi.Ka.Nagar where Porkodi Armstrong, widow of the slain BSP chief K Armstrong, has been fielded.
Stalin is chasing history as the only time the DMK has won back-to-back assembly elections was in 1971. Vijay is trying to emerge as the neo-MGR and do what 'Puratchi Thalaivar' (Revolutionary Leader) MGR did in 1977. 2026 is Palaniswami's opportunity to step out of Jayalalithaa's shadow and cast the AIADMK as his party. He turns 72 on May 12 and nothing would make him more happy than an early birthday present from the people of Tamil Nadu on May 4.
