Col Rajeev Agarwal (Retd)

The ongoing conflict between the US-Israel alliance and Iran has defied early expectations, revealing Iran's unexpected military resilience and strategic depth.

Israel and Hamas had agreed to a ceasefire just before Donald Trump took office as the US President in January 2025. The truce, which came into effect on January 16, lasted till March 18, when Israel unilaterally broke out of it, launching airstrikes and subsequently moving ground forces back into Gaza.

In a statement that shocked the world, Trump, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu sitting by his side, said on February 4 that the US will "take over" and "own" Gaza after resettling Palestinians elsewhere.

Trump's second term presents an opportunity to redefine the US-Iran relationship, especially as tensions over the latter's advancing nuclear capabilities escalate.

The heavy losses suffered by Iran's proxies, especially Hamas and Hezbollah, have put Iran on the back foot and forced it to recalibrate its regional strategy.

Beginning with the pager attacks on September 17, a series of Israeli assaults, including remote detonations and airstrikes that eliminated key Hezbollah leaders, culminated in the most shocking airstrike that killed Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah on September 27.

While the situation has been escalating in the Gaza war, all eyes have been on Iran, waiting to see how it responds.

Coming at a time when Israel is shifting the focus of military operations to the North to combat Hezbollah, this attack, both in timing and conduct, has a distinctive signature of a well-planned and orchestrated operation by Israeli intelligence.

Iran is aware that Israel is baiting it to join the war. In April, when it had carried out a retaliation against an Israeli strike on its consulate in Damascus, it was very clear and careful that the strike should be enough to be counted as retaliation but not seen as escalation.

On the night of July 30, Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in a targeted strike at his residence in a closely guarded area in Tehran.

Israel's Defence Minister Yoav Gallant said they wanted to send a clear message to the Houthis, adding that "the fire that is currently burning in Hodeidah is seen across the Middle East and the significance is clear."