Graphics: India Today-Karvy Insights Tamil Nadu opinion poll

If Tamil Nadu Assembly elections, due in 2021, were to be held today, the ruling AIADMK will get 68 seats with a vote share of 26 per cent. This is a substantial loss to the party that won 135 seats in 2016 Assembly elections with a vote share of over 40 per cent.

DMK+ alliance that includes DMK, Congress, and IUML will get 130 seats with a vote share of 34 per cent. Rajinikanth's party will win 33 seats with a vote share of 16 per cent. There'll be negligible impact of Kamal Haasan.

West Tamil Nadu's projected vote share

West Tamil Nadu's projected seat share.

Rajinikanth's party will making a notable beginning in the Tamil Nadu politics with 16 per cent vote share and that too when the formal party name/symbol has not been announced yet. The superstar turned politician has also not started any campaign and therefore his party would be an important political force in the next assembly elections.

South Tamil Nadu's projected seat share.

Over half of the respondents still feel that Rajini may not be able to fill the political vacuum in the state and that's what explains the possible growth in DMK voters' base.

The majority feel that his roots as an outsider will work against him in Tamil Nadu politics which he would need to counter.

A majority don't want Rajini to ally with Kamal.

Fate of Rajini in politics; 53 per cent say he will be successful.

North Tamil Nadu's projected vote share.

North Tamil Nadu's projected seat share.

The opinion polls suggest that Kamal Haasan will have a negligible impact.

A clear majority of 65 per cent respondents feel that Tamil Nadu is facing a political vacuum after the demise of J Jayalalithaa and this has adversely impacted the quality of governance in the state. 4 out of every 5 respondents believe the quality of governance in the State has deteriorated in the last one year or so. More than half feel that AIADMK will disintegrate in the absence of J Jayalalithaa.

The picture is not rosy for parties since there are AIADMK leaders who are now even behind Rajinikanth in the choice of being a chief minister.

Only 2 per cent think that the status of the farmers has changed drastically.

Central Tamil Nadu's projected vote share.

Central Tamil Nadu's projected seat share.

Around 20 per cent believe that parties don't pay cash for votes.

The Bharatiya Janata Party's presence seems to be quite out of the picture.

A clear majority of 64 per cent of respondents rate the performance of Palaniswami as poor/very poor. There is an overall dissatisfaction with the key economic and social parameters including job creation, state of schools, colleges, hospitals, industries, and condition of farmers.

O Panneerselvam has an edge over EK Palaniswami on this, and there is no consensus amongst respondents.

More than half feel that AIADMK will disintegrate in the absence of J Jayalalithaa.

Around 50 per cent respondents in the Tamil Nadu poll also rate MK Stalin as the most preferred Chief Minister if the elections were to happen today.