The BJP game plan is to win big even in defeat

"Numbers ka game samay tay karega" (time will decide the numbers game), said Prime Minister Narendra Modi in his address in the Lok Sabha on the women's reservation bill on Thursday. Numbers were crucial for the set of three bills that the government planned to get passed to reserve 33% of Lok Sabha seats for women before the 2029 general election. Numbers were the problem. The BJP and its allies did not have the 2/3rd support that they needed. So, why did the government desperately push for the reform to be passed?

The Lok Sabha on Friday rejected the bill that sought to fast-track the implementation of women's reservations and carry out delimitation without conducting a fresh Census. The ruling NDA needed 362 votes for passage of the bill. The proposal was defeated after a division of votes, with 298 members voting in favour and 230 voting against. A total of 528 MPs participated in the voting.

After the voting went against the bill in the Lok Sabha, Union Minister Kiren Rijiju accused the opposition of hijacking a historic decision and reiterated that the Modi government will continue to fight to give women their share.

The BJP most likely knew that it is in a unique position. Even as the Bill was rejected, the BJP could still emerge victorious. It can convert the defeat in Parliament into a victory by blaming the Opposition for denying women their "fair share".

The strategy was evident in PM Modi's speech. He on Thursday warned the opposition parties that "women of the country wouldn't forgive quota-opposers", hinting that the issue would play out when they go to seek votes.

"I would also like to offer advice to those who think only in political terms. Ever since the discussion about women's reservations began in our country, and every election that followed, whoever opposed this right for women, the women of the country have not forgiven them," said Modi.

Modi was referring to the Samajwadi Party (SP) and the RJD, which opposed the women's quota bill in 2010. Both parties have, in recent years, seen their political fortunes take a hit.

In 2010, the UPA government led by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh attempted to bring a 33% reservation for women in elected bodies. SP supremo Mulayam Singh Yadav and RJD chief Lalu Prasad Yadav, key constituents of the UPA, opposed the move, forcing Singh to drop the bill.

Modi, in his speech on Thursday, solidified the BJP's narrative that the opposition was depriving women of their rights and his government was fighting for them.

Union Home Minister Amit Shah on Friday lashed out at the opposition during his Lok Sabha address and accused them of not letting women get their fair share. "The opposition will witness the anger of women when they go to seek votes," Shah warned the opposition parties.

The opposition had sensed that. But the parties also realised that the BJP was trying to push through delimitation and add Lok Sabha seats, pivoting the entire exercise to the 33% women's quota.

Leader of Opposition in the Lok Sabha Rahul Gandhi on Friday accused the BJP of changing the electoral outline of the country. "The first truth is that this is not a women's bill. This has nothing to do with the empowerment of women. This is an attempt to change the electoral map of India," Rahul said during his address in the Lok Sabha.

"In 2023, when this law was passed, the Congress supported it, and even today, the Congress is strongly in support of women's reservation. But the truth is that the debate is not on women's reservations. The bill that the government has brought has changed the direction of the debate," Congress MP Priyanka Gandhi said on Thursday in Lok Sabha.

The Opposition knew that the BJP had placed it between the devil and the deep sea. It would lose out, be it in supporting or opposing the three bills that pave the way for the 33% quota for women.

"If Chanakya had been alive, he would have been shocked by your cunning," Priyanka Gandhi said with a smile, delivering a backhanded compliment to Home Minister Amit Shah, who was left smiling too.

The Opposition realised the bigger politics and had questioned the timing of the special session of Parliament, which comes even as Tamil Nadu and West Bengal are yet to vote.

The Trinamool Congress feared that it might be the BJP's attempt to consolidate women voters in Bengal, who have largely sided with the Mamata Banerjee-led party, due to its women-centric schemes.

"Why did the government not bring these bills earlier? Why this hurry when the Assembly elections [West Bengal and Tamil Nadu] are taking place? Women's reservation is a disguise to alter the election process and harm democracy," said Trinamool Congress MP Kakoli Ghosh Dastidar.

There was a realisation among opposition parties that the women's reservation bill would have resonance on the ground and might shape electoral outcomes. Women form a crucial segment of voters, and it was the Modi-led BJP that used targeted schemes for the new social engineering. The BJP has gone on to win one state after another with women-centric schemes like Ladli Behna, Ladki Bahin, and Deendayal Lado Lakshmi Yojana.

As the debate on the bills went on till late at night on Thursday, the BJP hastily notified the 2023 Women's Reservation Act, linking its fate to the three bills that were defeated by the Opposition.

This was explained by Congress MP Manish Tewari in an interview with The Indian Express. "If a Bill that is contingent on the passage of another Bill in the House fails, then the original Bill or Act also becomes infructuous," Tewari said, explaining the BJP's late-night move.

So, with the three bills failing because of the Opposition parties voting against them, the BJP will place the blame fair and square on the parties for demolishing the Women's Reservation Bill that was passed and notified too. At the hustings, it will become very difficult for the Opposition to explain why it opposed and defeated a pro-women step of the government. The BJP will emerge victorious, even in defeat.