He is vote-cutter, not contender: Psephologists on Prashant Kishor in Bihar polls

Psephologists at the India Today Mumbai Conclave 2025 convened to analyse the electoral landscape ahead of the Bihar elections slated for November 2025.

Discussions highlighted the evolving political dynamics, particularly the traditional Muslim-Yadav (MY) caste equation, which was identified as a 'self-defeating argument' necessitating a broader coalition for electoral success.

Panellists also addressed the credibility of poll predictions following the 2024 Lok Sabha election results.

A significant focus was placed on the critical role of women voters, termed the 'M' factor for 'Mahila', and the potential impact of a Direct Benefit Transfer scheme proposing Rs 10,000 to nearly 80 lakh women.

Experts weighed the deep-rooted influence of caste arithmetic against the rising significance of gender as a determining factor in what is shaping up to be a tightly contested battle for Bihar.

Psephologist Pradeep Gupta offered insights into new political entrants, specifically Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraj Party, noting its growing traction among the youth, a voter base that previously supported Tejashwi Yadav in 2020.

This shift could potentially divide the anti-incumbency vote. The Rashtriya Janata Dal's challenge to expand beyond its traditional Muslim-Yadav voter base was also discussed, with analysts emphasising the necessity of an 'MY plus' strategy, incorporating youth and women, to secure a victory in the upcoming Bihar polls.