'AAPda' for AAP after Gujarat civic poll drubbing, exodus of MPs, Delhi loss
The AAP, widely seen as the principal opposition to the BJP, suffered a massive setback in the Gujarat local body polls. The result, which erodes the party's gains from 2021, comes as a double whammy for the AAP days after it was dealt a blow by the exodus of seven Rajya Sabha MPs to the BJP.
That the BJP would dominate the Gujarat local body elections was not a surprising outcome. After all, the BJP has been at the helm in Prime Minister Narendra Modi's home state for three decades. However, what came as a surprise was the meagre returns of the opposition, especially the AAP, in what was billed as a three-cornered contest. The AAP, smarting from the defection of seven Rajya Sabha MPs to the BJP, not only failed to win any municipal corporation but also squandered the gains it made in 2021.
The results indicate a grave crisis for the AAP. Gujarat is only among the handful of states where the Arvind Kejriwal-led party got a foothold after winning five seats in the 2022 assembly polls and by punching above its weight in the 2021 local body elections. Presently, AAP is only in power in Punjab after losing Delhi to the BJP last year. In Goa, the AAP has just two MLAs.
WHAT GUJARAT POLL RESULTS MEAN FOR AAP
The local body elections, coming a year ahead of the 2027 Gujarat assembly polls, reveal that the BJP stays firmly in command. Despite the anti-incumbency factor, the BJP swept all 15 municipal corporations. In fact, such was the domination that the BJP has crossed the 50% mark in each corporation. It is also set to win a major chunk of the 84 municipalities, 34 district panchayats and 260 taluka panchayats that went to polls in the state.
The biggest setback to AAP came in the Surat Municipal Corporation (SMC). The AAP managed to win just four of the 120 seats in Surat, with the Congress getting three. The BJP secured a decisive win by bagging 92 seats.
LOSES GROUND IN SURAT
The results signal a massive downfall for the AAP. In the 2021 polls, the AAP emerged as the principal opposition in the Surat Municipal Corporation by winning 27 seats. It reduced the Congress to zero seats.
The 2021 polls were a defining moment for the AAP in a state known as the BJP's fortress. While it won only 32 of the over 2,000 seats in the rural body elections, the party finished ahead of the Congress in around 250 seats. The AAP also bagged 14% of the total votes - a significant achievement for a decade-old party.
This was basically at the expense of the Congress. The vote share of the BJP remained largely stable.
The same pattern was seen in the 2022 Assembly polls. A resurgent AAP reduced Congress to just 17 seats. The Congress's vote share also dropped from 41% to 27%. The AAP, contesting assembly elections in Gujarat for the first time, bagged 13% of the votes and five seats.
Thus, it was widely expected that the AAP would put up a strong performance in the 2026 local body elections. Both Kejriwal and Punjab Chief Minister Bhagwant Singh Mann campaigned for the elections, dubbing it as the "semifinal" before the 2027 state polls.
However, except for a few symbolic wins, the AAP failed to leave a mark. The party won the Bagasara Taluka panchayat - the first time it has gained power in any panchayat body in Gujarat.
LESSONS FOR AAP
The results flag two aspects. A declining grassroots strength in Gujarat and its inability to keep its flock together.
In fact, the party has been losing key leaders over the past couple of years. The woes began in 2024 when key leaders - Alpesh Kathiriya and Dharmik Malaviya - associated with the Patidar agitation quit the party. The same year, AAP MLA Bhupendra Bhayani joined the BJP. In 2025, the AAP got another jolt when its Botad MLA, Umesh Makwana, resigned.
A declining cadre strength will make it difficult for the AAP to better its 2022 assembly poll numbers in 2027. It's not only about Gujarat, though.
2027 will also see Punjab go to the polls. It is here that the shock defection of seven Rajya Sabha MPs, six of whom were from Punjab, will pinch the AAP the most. Among the seven are two of AAP's backroom strategists - Sandeep Pathak and Raghav Chadha - who were key to the party forming its first government in Punjab.
As mentioned earlier, Punjab is the only state where the AAP is in power. Thus, the Kejriwal-led party's future largely hinges on its performance in next year's Punjab elections as Delhi polls are still four years away.
With high-profile leaders gone, it remains to be seen how AAP manages to crack the Gujarat and Punjab poll code in 2027.
That the BJP would dominate the Gujarat local body elections was not a surprising outcome. After all, the BJP has been at the helm in Prime Minister Narendra Modi's home state for three decades. However, what came as a surprise was the meagre returns of the opposition, especially the AAP, in what was billed as a three-cornered contest. The AAP, smarting from the defection of seven Rajya Sabha MPs to the BJP, not only failed to win any municipal corporation but also squandered the gains it made in 2021.
The results indicate a grave crisis for the AAP. Gujarat is only among the handful of states where the Arvind Kejriwal-led party got a foothold after winning five seats in the 2022 assembly polls and by punching above its weight in the 2021 local body elections. Presently, AAP is only in power in Punjab after losing Delhi to the BJP last year. In Goa, the AAP has just two MLAs.
WHAT GUJARAT POLL RESULTS MEAN FOR AAP
The local body elections, coming a year ahead of the 2027 Gujarat assembly polls, reveal that the BJP stays firmly in command. Despite the anti-incumbency factor, the BJP swept all 15 municipal corporations. In fact, such was the domination that the BJP has crossed the 50% mark in each corporation. It is also set to win a major chunk of the 84 municipalities, 34 district panchayats and 260 taluka panchayats that went to polls in the state.
The biggest setback to AAP came in the Surat Municipal Corporation (SMC). The AAP managed to win just four of the 120 seats in Surat, with the Congress getting three. The BJP secured a decisive win by bagging 92 seats.
LOSES GROUND IN SURAT
The results signal a massive downfall for the AAP. In the 2021 polls, the AAP emerged as the principal opposition in the Surat Municipal Corporation by winning 27 seats. It reduced the Congress to zero seats.
The 2021 polls were a defining moment for the AAP in a state known as the BJP's fortress. While it won only 32 of the over 2,000 seats in the rural body elections, the party finished ahead of the Congress in around 250 seats. The AAP also bagged 14% of the total votes - a significant achievement for a decade-old party.
This was basically at the expense of the Congress. The vote share of the BJP remained largely stable.
The same pattern was seen in the 2022 Assembly polls. A resurgent AAP reduced Congress to just 17 seats. The Congress's vote share also dropped from 41% to 27%. The AAP, contesting assembly elections in Gujarat for the first time, bagged 13% of the votes and five seats.
Thus, it was widely expected that the AAP would put up a strong performance in the 2026 local body elections. Both Kejriwal and Punjab Chief Minister Bhagwant Singh Mann campaigned for the elections, dubbing it as the "semifinal" before the 2027 state polls.
However, except for a few symbolic wins, the AAP failed to leave a mark. The party won the Bagasara Taluka panchayat - the first time it has gained power in any panchayat body in Gujarat.
LESSONS FOR AAP
The results flag two aspects. A declining grassroots strength in Gujarat and its inability to keep its flock together.
In fact, the party has been losing key leaders over the past couple of years. The woes began in 2024 when key leaders - Alpesh Kathiriya and Dharmik Malaviya - associated with the Patidar agitation quit the party. The same year, AAP MLA Bhupendra Bhayani joined the BJP. In 2025, the AAP got another jolt when its Botad MLA, Umesh Makwana, resigned.
A declining cadre strength will make it difficult for the AAP to better its 2022 assembly poll numbers in 2027. It's not only about Gujarat, though.
2027 will also see Punjab go to the polls. It is here that the shock defection of seven Rajya Sabha MPs, six of whom were from Punjab, will pinch the AAP the most. Among the seven are two of AAP's backroom strategists - Sandeep Pathak and Raghav Chadha - who were key to the party forming its first government in Punjab.
As mentioned earlier, Punjab is the only state where the AAP is in power. Thus, the Kejriwal-led party's future largely hinges on its performance in next year's Punjab elections as Delhi polls are still four years away.
With high-profile leaders gone, it remains to be seen how AAP manages to crack the Gujarat and Punjab poll code in 2027.
