Gita Gopinath says 2026 will be a year of high uncertainty and volatility

In an exclusive interaction with India Today at Davos, Harvard Professor and former IMF Deputy Managing Director Gita Gopinath discusses the 'Trumpian world order' and its impact on global geoeconomics. Gopinath warns that 2026 will be a year of 'high levels of uncertainty and high levels of volatility,' noting that while 2025 created an 'illusion of stability,' structural changes and tariffs are likely to hit living standards over time. Regarding India, she estimates that US tariffs could knock off approximately 0.7 percentage points from growth over two years. She emphasizes that India's demographic dividend remains limited as labor contributes only 30 percent to growth, urging continued reforms in land titles and the judiciary. Gopinath also expresses caution over AI valuations, comparing them to a potential dot-com style correction, while remaining positive on the technology's productivity potential. She concludes by advising the Trump administration that maintaining alliances, including with India, is critical for America's own economic benefit.