Chandrababu Naidu | Imagining a 'fertile' Andhra

Investing in the future has always been N. Chandrababu Naidu’s style, but till now, that has entailed technology—not biology. Naidu 4.0, however, ventures where no population policy has gone before: encouraging people to have more children. On May 16, the Andhra Pradesh chief minister went public with what he’s been hinting at for long, a scheme called ‘Pillale Sampada’ (Children Are Wealth). That’s literal. Families will get cash incentives of Rs 30,000 for a third child and Rs 40,000 for a fourth.The message will soon be megaphoned at the micro-level—gram sabhas (village councils) and other forums—with consultations planned to gauge public opinion. To make sure Andhraites heed the CM’s call, all manner of incentives are being lumped together into one integrated suite: a Rs 1,000 monthly nutrition support for five years under Poshana, free education till 18 years under Shiksha, and household health insurance support offering Suraksha (security), with year-long maternity leave and two-month paternity leave adding to the proffered comfort. There’s also subsidised IVF support in the offing.More children signifying economic security is what typifies poverty and low development globally. Prosperity and progress usually thin family sizes. Why, then, is Andhra inverting the equation? That too under a CM who’s an exemplar of 1980s-style family planning? For, Naidu has just one child—43-year-old Telugu Desam Party scion Nara Lokesh, who, too, in turn, has just one son. WHY THE REVERSALCall it too much progress. The state’s total fertility rate (TFR) has dropped to 1.5 (2022-23) from 3 (1992-93). That’s below 2.1, the minimum replacement level. The decimal point above two implies childbirths per women in a demographic set more than balances out mortalities, keeping a population stable. A TFR below 1.5 is a “rich nation’s crisis”, with Japan (1.2), South Korea (0.7) and Italy (1.2) leading the demographic plunge. India, too, is tapering off at 1.9. But then, it can afford to be there. In Andhra, even the district with the highest fertility rate, Kadapa, weighs in only at 1.99. Mothers in Visakhapatnam birth the nadir: 1.32. If this trend holds, Andhra’s TFR will fall to 1.07 by 2051.After a point, a low TFR hits productivity. In a decade, 19 per cent of AP’s population will be 60-plus. Bihar will still be at 10.9 per cent then, and Uttar Pradesh at 11.8 per cent. In Andhra, below-35s will plunge to 43.2 per cent by then, underscoring the crisis it faces.“A vibrant economy is fuelled by a young workforce,” says Dr Chander Shekhar, an authority in fertility and social demography at Mumbai’s International Institute for Population Sciences. “So, a reduction in numbers impacts a state’s growth. It could also lead to more inward migration of labour.”While an unsaid part of the problem, working class in-migration from poorer eastern and northern states could be adding to Andhra’s anxieties. “If population decline continues, even white-collar jobs in IT, AI, pharma and biotech could increasingly go to outsiders,” says Samayam Hemanth Kumar, president of the Andhra Pradesh Unemployed Joint Action Committee.The southern states tamed the population genie not coercively, but by embedding it within a human-led matrix of education and health. Of late, it’s being seen as too much of a runaway success. In Tamil Nadu, which has an even lower TFR than Andhra’s at 1.3, ex-CM M.K. Stalin was only half-joking when he encouraged “newlyweds to bear children as early as possiblesince the number of MPs depends on our population”. Naidu may deny his new policy has anything to do with delimitation, but that ambient scare is real.His U-turn has led to its own complications. The VHP wants the incentives to be given to only Hindu families. Poonam Muttreja, executive director, Population Fund of India, looks askance at another aspect. “It’s personal choice. Women must have 100 per cent agency here. Any attempt to influence this, even with financial aid, infringes on their rights.” Other experts wonder if Andhra Pradesh can pull it off where even Japan and China failed.- EndsPublished By: Mansi Published On: May 30, 2026 14:27 IST

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Chandrababu Naidu | Imagining a 'fertile' Andhra

Naidu plots another boom—this time, of babies. A greying demography prompts a policy to reverse the population story

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