Malda's electoral shift: Congress decline and TMC's growing hold
In 2021, TMC's vote share jumped to 52.4 per cent, and it won 38 of the 49 seats. The BJP also made significant gains, securing 30.2 per cent of the vote and 11 seats. The Congress and the Left were wiped out, failing to win a single seat.
As the West Bengal Assembly elections draw closer, campaigning is gathering pace. Across the state, politics is increasingly shaping into a bipolar contest between the Trinamool Congress (TMC) and the BJP.
Bengal’s electoral map is broadly divided into five regions, and among them, the Malda region stands out for its distinct voting behaviour. With 49 seats, trends from the past three Assembly elections highlight just how fortunes have changed in recent years.
In 2011, the region was a stronghold of the Congress party. The party won 25 out of 49 seats with a vote share of 31.6 per cent. The Communist Party of India (Marxist) was also relevant, while the TMC, despite its statewide rise, was still finding its footing here.
Even in the 2016 assembly polls, when Mamata Banerjee strengthened her position across the state, Malda proved to be a tough political turf. The TMC's vote share jumped to 32.7 per cent from 12.5 per cent five years ago, but it won only 10 seats. Congress, with 29.1 per cent of the votes, held on to 26 seats. This divergence between vote share and seats won showed that local equations still mattered.
SWEEP FOR TMC IN 2021
A dramatic shift, however, came in 2021 with the surge of the TMC. Its vote share jumped to 52.4 per cent, and it won 38 of the 49 seats. The BJP also made significant gains, securing 30.2 per cent of the vote and 11 seats. The Congress and the Left were wiped out, failing to win a single seat.
The verdict suggested that the Malda region had finally aligned with the rest of West Bengal’s bipolar politics. A closer look, however, tells a different story. The shift has not been gradual. Vote-share patterns between 2011 and 2021 show that losses for the Congress and the Left directly translated into gains for the TMC and the BJP. Rather than a slow political transition, this represents a new realignment of political forces.
Malda continues to be a key campaign ground.
PM Narendra Modi addressed a rally in Malda district earlier this year and launched major infrastructure projects, including the sleeper Vande Bharat.
A new political layer is also emerging in the region. AIMIM chief Asaduddin Owaisi has partnered with Humayun Kabir's party, with a focus on districts like Malda and Murshidabad, with an aim to reshape the minority vote. The alliance is being seen as an attempt to create an alternative leadership among Muslim voters, which could further fragment an already shifting electoral base in the region.
If it gains traction, this could further complicate the arithmetic in Malda, preventing the consolidation of votes behind any single party.
The BJP’s steady rise and the TMC’s dominance have likely not fully erased older loyalties. What sets Malda apart is that voters do not shift in unison. The transition is layered.
The minority-dominated Malda region lies close to Bihar’s Seemanchal belt, where the AIMIM has tasted success in the past two elections. Will Owaisi’s appeal work here as well? In Seemanchal, the AIMIM’s rise came at the expense of the Rashtriya Janata Dal, which once held a dominant position in the region.
Will the entry of a new player further complicate the electoral arithmetic in a region that has witnessed a churn recently?
As the West Bengal Assembly elections draw closer, campaigning is gathering pace. Across the state, politics is increasingly shaping into a bipolar contest between the Trinamool Congress (TMC) and the BJP.
Bengal’s electoral map is broadly divided into five regions, and among them, the Malda region stands out for its distinct voting behaviour. With 49 seats, trends from the past three Assembly elections highlight just how fortunes have changed in recent years.
In 2011, the region was a stronghold of the Congress party. The party won 25 out of 49 seats with a vote share of 31.6 per cent. The Communist Party of India (Marxist) was also relevant, while the TMC, despite its statewide rise, was still finding its footing here.
Even in the 2016 assembly polls, when Mamata Banerjee strengthened her position across the state, Malda proved to be a tough political turf. The TMC's vote share jumped to 32.7 per cent from 12.5 per cent five years ago, but it won only 10 seats. Congress, with 29.1 per cent of the votes, held on to 26 seats. This divergence between vote share and seats won showed that local equations still mattered.
SWEEP FOR TMC IN 2021
A dramatic shift, however, came in 2021 with the surge of the TMC. Its vote share jumped to 52.4 per cent, and it won 38 of the 49 seats. The BJP also made significant gains, securing 30.2 per cent of the vote and 11 seats. The Congress and the Left were wiped out, failing to win a single seat.
The verdict suggested that the Malda region had finally aligned with the rest of West Bengal’s bipolar politics. A closer look, however, tells a different story. The shift has not been gradual. Vote-share patterns between 2011 and 2021 show that losses for the Congress and the Left directly translated into gains for the TMC and the BJP. Rather than a slow political transition, this represents a new realignment of political forces.
Malda continues to be a key campaign ground.
PM Narendra Modi addressed a rally in Malda district earlier this year and launched major infrastructure projects, including the sleeper Vande Bharat.
A new political layer is also emerging in the region. AIMIM chief Asaduddin Owaisi has partnered with Humayun Kabir's party, with a focus on districts like Malda and Murshidabad, with an aim to reshape the minority vote. The alliance is being seen as an attempt to create an alternative leadership among Muslim voters, which could further fragment an already shifting electoral base in the region.
If it gains traction, this could further complicate the arithmetic in Malda, preventing the consolidation of votes behind any single party.
The BJP’s steady rise and the TMC’s dominance have likely not fully erased older loyalties. What sets Malda apart is that voters do not shift in unison. The transition is layered.
The minority-dominated Malda region lies close to Bihar’s Seemanchal belt, where the AIMIM has tasted success in the past two elections. Will Owaisi’s appeal work here as well? In Seemanchal, the AIMIM’s rise came at the expense of the Rashtriya Janata Dal, which once held a dominant position in the region.
Will the entry of a new player further complicate the electoral arithmetic in a region that has witnessed a churn recently?
