Kerala | Fight to the finish

When he became chief minister for a second consecutive time in 2021, Pinarayi Vijayan broke a 40-year jinx that had seen his CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) alternate in power. Riding its globally feted management of the COVID-19 pandemic, it dashed the UDF hopes of turning its 19-1 victory in the 2019 general election into local political currency. The LDF even upped its take-home, from 91 to 99 seats in a 140-strong assembly. Kerala finds itself at the same crossroads today—the state again voted overwhelmingly UDF (18 seats) in the 2024 Lok Sabha election. The Congress-led Opposition also delivered a body blow to the LDF in the 2025 local body elections and even wrested the Nilambur assembly seat in a bypoll last year. Can Pinarayi again manage a winning return of serve? Or will 2026 be the end of the road for the 80-year-old CPI(M) strongman? If it’s bad news that comes on May 4, it will also dim the lights on the Left in its last remaining bastion in the country.

Party general secretary M.A. Baby does not think much of the odds of that happening. “Local body elections are different; this is for who rules the state,” he says. In their bid for a hat trick, Pinarayi and the LDF are building a two-fold narrative. The first is about continuity, progress and the ‘Kerala model’ of development. The second aims to highlight the Narendra Modi government’s alleged discrimination against Kerala, whether it’s the denial of financial support for the Wayanad landslide victims or a special financial package for the Vizhinjam seaport, a high-speed rail corridor, or the Kerala iteration of a much-promised All India Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS). “Be it roads, infrastructure, the Wayanad rehabilitation or social security, the Left government has delivered on all the promises it made in 2021. And this is despite the Modi government’s best efforts to throttle Kerala financially by denying the state its dues,” says Baby.

Pinarayi will once again be leading the LDF campaign, contesting from home constituency Dharmadom, a CPI(M) stronghold in Kannur district. The party has relaxed the two-term cap for legislators to accommodate the octogenarian CM. Riding on the slogan ‘Who else but LDF?’, the Left coalition intends to showcase the “visible infrastructure it has created”. “The Congress and BJP are just repeating their lies,” Pinarayi told the media on March 29. “The LDF is seeking the mandate based on our track record, good governance practices and welfare measures for the needy.” These include projects worth Rs 1.1 lakh crore, funded by the Kerala Infrastructure Investment Fund Board (KIIFB), which are complete or in the works. Among them are initiatives in transportation (coastal and hill highways), energy (Transgrid 2.0), education (hi-tech schools) and healthcare (Bio 360 Life Sciences Park). The first phase of the rehabilitation project for the Wayanad landslide victims was completed in March. The second phase of the Vizhinjam International Seaport expansion is also under way. Social security pensions have been hiked from Rs 1,600 to Rs 2,000 a month for 6.2 million eligible poor people, and the LDF claims to have built 500,000 houses as part of its project to ‘eradicate homelessness’ in the state.

Even with that breathless litany of pluses, there is no denying the anti-incumbency factor. Against the paternal image of Pinarayi shepherding Kerala through traumatic chapters—the 2018 flood, COVID, the Wayanad landslide— allegations of corruption and a high-handed ‘iron hand’ rule have kept up a matching pace. Autocratic centralisation of power is a persistent charge: several CPI(M) heavyweights, denied tickets, have decided enough is enough and have turned rebel. Foremost among them is G. Sudhakaran, a former state committee member and PWD minister in Pinarayi’s first term, who has severed a 63-year association with the CPI(M) to fight as an Independent from his old fortress Ambalappuzha. His rebellion against ‘Pinarayi exceptionalism’ has found enthusiastic backing from the UDF. Even K.K. Shailaja ‘Teacher’, the former health minister who actually handled COVID, continues to face a perceived diminution: from all accounts, she has not suffered an unfavourable seat allocation too gladly.

CHANGE IS IN THE AIR

While the LDF looks unsettled, the Congress-led UDF appears to be in the ascendant. The formation is determined not to spend another term in the Opposition. Its wins in 2024 and the local body polls last December have raised hopes. Preparations started early, with the enlisting of poll strategist Sunil Kanugolu, architect of the party’s Telangana win. Three surveys were conducted to identify the best candidates for each constituency; seat allocation talks with allies Kerala Congress (Joseph) and the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) also proceeded apace.

The Congress is framing the 2026 election as a referendum on the LDF’s corruption and fiscal mismanagement of the past 10 years. A case in point is the Rs 100 crore spent on the fourth anniversary celebration of Pinarayi 2.0. Congress leader and former Wayanad MP Rahul Gandhi upped the tempo at a rally on March 29 in Pathanamthitta, home to the famous Sabarimala shrine dedicated to Lord Ayyappa. To the question, ‘Swarnam kattathu arappa (Who stole the [Lord’s] gold)?’, the crowds roared back, ‘Saghaakkalaane Ayyappa (The comrades did it, Ayyappa)’, reviving the CPI(M)’s nightmare of the missing gold from the hill temple.

Leader of the Opposition V.D. Satheesan is confident the UDF will win 110 seats. “The people have had enough of this government; that was evident after the local body polls last year. They will vote us to power to end the misrule in the state,” he says. The Congress campaign also got fresh wind in its sails when the Modi government introduced the Foreign Contribution (Regulation) Amendment Bill (FCRA) Bill on March 25, giving it a chance to deflate the BJP’s Christian outreach in Kerala. Though postponed for now, the bill sought to regulate the acceptance and utilisation of foreign contribution by individuals, associations and companies, sparking protests from Kerala churches that feared its provisions would affect their functioning. “The timing of the FCRA Bill was a blessing in disguise for the Congress in Kerala,” says poll analyst Sunnykutty Abraham. “The church and the community were worried about the amendment. They will rally behind the Congress and the UDF now. It will help the UDF sweep the polls in south and central Kerala.”

To win, though, the Congress-led UDF will have to rein in the competing ambitions of its leaders. There was talk of a three-way tussle between Satheesan, Delhi-based MP and general secretary (organisation) K.C. Venugopal and campaign committee chairman Ramesh Chennithala over candidate selection, but Satheesan dismisses it. The UDF will also have to get its electoral math right. The seat-sharing gives the Congress 90-plus seats, but the key question is whether allies IUML (in Malabar) and the KC(J), which has sway over the Christian electorate in central Kerala, will be able to transfer their votes to the party. Opinion polls give UDF the advantage in northern districts like Malappuram and Wayanad, where IUML and Congress networks are entrenched. But central Kerala, including the districts of Kottayam, Ernakulam, Idukki and Thrissur, is where they will win or lose the battle. The region accounts for 40-plus seats, and the Congress must turn around its poor 2021 performance here to win.

Queering the pitch for both the LDF and UDF this election could be the BJP-led NDA, which has upped both its ambition and campaign in Kerala. Not only did the party announce its candidates’ list early, it also amplified its electoral intent with the slogan ‘Maaraathathu Ini Maarum (What did not will now change)’. Winning back Nemom, a Hindu-majority constituency with a strong RSS presence that gave the party its first and only MLA in 2016, is central to the party’s ambitions here. The other ‘winnable’ seats include Manjeshwar in the north, Palakkad, and select constituencies in Thrissur and Thiruvananthapuram. The party is relying heavily on leaders like new state president Rajeev Chandrasekhar, and veteran leaders like K. Surendran and Union minister V. Muraleedharan. The strategy is to consolidate the Hindu vote and earn returns from the Christian outreach.

A TIGHT RACE

Political analyst A. Jayashankar, who has been following state elections for over three decades now, feels the balance is still in favour of the LDF. “There is a negative wave against Pinarayi, but the Left legislators largely remain popular in their respective constituencies. If the LDF wins, it will be south-central Kerala that saves them—Thiruvananthapuram, Kollam, Alappuzha, Pathanamthitta, Kottayam and Idukki,” he says. These districts account for 53 seats, and the LDF won 44 of them in 2021.

The Congress’s Chennithala, who is contesting from Haripad, does not see that happening. “People are fed up with the corrupt LDF regime,” he says. “Just look at the number of CPI(M) rebels supporting the Congress and fighting against their party candidates. Even CPI(M) stronghold Kannur will vote for the UDF this time.” In the midst of all this, two factors could send the calculations of all political parties awry: new voters and women. The state has enrolled 466,000 new voters under 20, and some 4.77 million women voters are under 40. How they vote on April 9 could provide some dramatic twists to the Kerala story.