Kerala | The Congress comeback

A running joke among Malayalis during the election campaign in Kerala was that you couldn’t walk a kilometre anywhere in the state without a giant flex of the ‘Great Leader’—the now-deposed chief minister Pinarayi Vijayan—peering down at you. In hindsight, perhaps not the best move for a party of the proletariat carrying the anti-incumbency baggage of a decade in power. At one of the post-victory press conferences, the Congress taunted that this personality cult and the “hubris” in the CPI(M) campaign slogan, ‘Mattaarundu LDF allaathe (If not the Left, who else?)’ had done enough to convince voters that a change was needed.

The results speak for themselves—the Left Front is down to 35 seats from 99 in 2021, one of its worst defeats in over four decades, while the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) posted one of the highest tallies in recent Kerala political history, bagging 102 seats (46.5 per cent vote share) in the 140-member assembly. What changed? The return of the minority communities to the UDF and Congress this election, an 8.9 per cent swing in votes that has helped rout the Left even in its strongholds. The Congress has had one of its best showings in years, with 63 seats, followed by the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) with 22, and the Kerala Congress (Joseph faction) with seven. Minor allies and UDF-backed independents cornered another 10 seats.

“We worked as ‘Team UDF’ in the past five years. And today, we made it,” Leader of the Opposition in the outgoing assembly, V.D. Satheesan, tells India Today. “When I said we’d win 100 plus seats, not many in my party believed me. But I was confident.” The Congress leader says the party focused on four things—reconnecting with allies who had drifted away, drawing in sections who were disappointed with the Pinarayi government, boosting cadre morale after the 2021 assembly poll loss and exposing the Left Democratic Front government’s failures.

Indeed, Satheesan had worked tirelessly since 2021, when he was given the responsibility of Leader of the Opposition in the assembly. The weak party machinery, lack of funds for poll campaigns, factionalism in the state party organisation were handicaps, but what stood him in good stead was his staunchly secular credentials and refusal to back down from a fight, be it in the assembly against the Left Front, or outside it against caste/ religion-based political outfits. In fact, the secular stand helped him lance Pinarayi’s soft Hindutva moves with Ezhava community leader Vellappally Natesan and Nair Service Society (NSS) supremo G. Sukumaran Nair. The Congress also backed the six CPI(M) rebels in the fray. Three of them won decisively.

The massive victory, though, does not mean Satheesan has emerged as sole claimant for the CM’s post. A three-way tussle is on right now, with a group led by former PCC chief K. Sudhakaran campaigning for AICC general secretary K.C. Venugopal, even as Satheesan loyalists want him rewarded. Former Leader of the Opposition Ramesh Chennithala has also thrown his hat in the ring and has reportedly presented his demands to senior Congress leaders.

On May 5, leaders of the Venugopal faction greeted him at New Delhi airport with flowers and drumbeats. They claim that KC has the backing of 43 MLAs, besides the victorious CPI(M) rebels. Satheesan loyalists weren’t too far behind—they organised a massive welcome at Ernakulam South railway station when he arrived from Thiruvananthapuram. Meanwhile, the IUML, which has 22 legislators, is demanding the deputy CM’s post. The Congress high command will have a tough time dealing with all the aspirants as Kerala braces for a power shift.

THE CPI(M)'s MANY WOES

erala was the last bastion of the Left in India, and Kannur, from where the redoubtable Pinarayi Vijayan hails, its citadel. With the CPI(M) top brass confident of a third consecutive victory, no one imagined it would be breached. After all, hadn’t Pinarayi led the team to victory in 2021 with 99 seats, improving the LDF’s tally despite the customs gold smuggling scam that hit his office and family?

This time around, Pinarayi could not deliver. Results day left the CPI(M) in tatters, its tally down to just 26 seats. As many as 13 ministers in the outgoing Pinarayi government lost in the polls, including health minister Veena George, industries minister P. Rajeev, higher education minister R. Bindu, and transport minister K.B. Ganesh Kumar. The Communist Party of India (CPI), a major constituent of the LDF, has also been racked by discontent within its ranks. It contested 25 seats, but won only eight.

Pinarayi himself was tested by lightweight Congress candidate V.P. Abdul Rasheed in home constituency Dharmadam in Kannur, trailing in the first seven rounds of counting, before finally winning by 19,000-odd votes (compared to 50,123 votes in 2021). Clearly, exit orders also came from CPI(M) supporters who were disappointed with the leadership for a variety of reasons, ranging from policy issues to nepotism. The party’s failure to tackle the grievances of a group of veteran leaders, in particular those in Kannur who contested as independents with UDF support, also hurt the CPI(M) in many strongholds.

Observers cite four major reasons for Pinarayi’s fall in Kerala: the CPI(M)’s extravagant spending on party events; insensitivity towards protests, especially that of the ASHA workers for a wage hike; the Sabarimala gold theft case and the failure to gauge the public mood of anti-incumbency. “A government may fail in delivering, but it must have the magnanimity to admit its failures, explain the reasons for it,” says veteran CPI leader C. Divakaran, a former minister. “Pinarayi lost touch with people, failed to sense their mood.”

The emergence of high-profile rebels close to the election also came as a major setback. Former CPI(M) Kannur district secretariat member T.K. Govindan quit the party to protest against the party fielding P.K. Shyamala, wife of party state secretary M.V. Govindan, in Taliparamba. T.K. Govindan won here by over 12,000 votes, with support from the Congress. Similarly, V. Kunhikrishnan, another CPI(M) district secretariat member in Payyannur, demanded a probe into the alleged mismanagement of a martyr’s fund in which party MLA M.I. Madhusoodanan was allegedly involved and quit the party. Kunhikrishnan won Payyannur by 7,000 votes against Madhusoodanan. In Ambalappuzha near Alappuzha, G. Sudhakaran, veteran CPI(M) leader and former minister, also quit the party and contested with UDF support. He won by 13,807 votes. Places like Payyannur and Taliparamba are known as ‘party villages’, and the wins of CPI(M) rebels there—and the attendant drain of thousands of cadre votes—was a bitter blow.

In the eight constituencies the CPI(M) contested in Kannur district, it lost around 84,000 votes it had won in 2021; the UDF gained 144,703 votes in 2026. The Congress won five out of the 11 constituencies in the district. “I had warned them many times regarding the functioning of party machinery,” says T.K. Govindan. “They (party leadership) were reluctant to take corrective steps.”

In fact, this nagging discontent against the party leadership even amongst cadres eclipsed the LDF’s merits—good governance, thrust on infrastructure and the completion of big-ticket projects despite fighting a cash crunch. Voters seemed to be bent on a change, ignoring the LDF’s display of its developmental achievements. “The LDF government delivered the best for Kerala during the last 10 years,” says Sanjeev Ramachandran, a political analyst and senior journalist. “People rated the government on certain failures that were blasted out of proportion by the media.”

In a remarkable run, the UDF smashed through Wayanad, Malappuram, Ernakulam, Kottayam and Idukki districts, winning all 47 seats. “There was aversion towards the Left government among voters. The slogan ‘If not the Left, who else?’ reflected the leadership’s arrogance, overconfidence and disregard for voters,” says a retired senior bureaucrat.

The CPI(M)’s losses will also see its numbers in the Rajya Sabha go down. Of its three members in the Upper House, Dr V. Sivadasan and John Brittas retire in April 2027, while A.A. Rahim retires in April 2028.

BJP GETS A FEW MORE

he BJP saw only a marginal increase in its vote share in 2026 (11.4 per cent) from 2021 (11.3), but it is very satisfied with its three wins—its highest so far. While state party president Rajeev Chandrasekhar wrested back the Nemom constituency from the CPI(M), former Union minister of state V. Muraleedharan and B.B. Gopakumar won from the leftist strongholds of Kazhakoottam and Chathannoor, respectively.

“The BJP is going to be a major political force in Kerala. We will use the platform to raise people’s issues,” says K. Surendran, former state BJP president who lost from Manjeshwar. Though the party leadership has its work cut out, the party did win the second place in as many as six constituencies—Attingal, Thiruvalla, Palakkad, Malampuzha, Manjeshwar and Kasaragod.

The new UDF government faces multiple administrative challenges, including an empty exchequer and the delivery of poll promises. With its manifesto promising such largesse as Rs 1,000 monthly stipend for girl students in colleges, Rs 25 lakh family health cover and Rs 3,000 monthly welfare pensions, it will have to get its fiscal management right. Drawing lessons from the LDF’s rout, the new CM must also avoid centralising power and creating a personality cult, and invest all leaders with responsibility and party workers with purpose. The greatest lesson of all? The huge mandate makes it imperative for the Congress-led combine to bind itself to the grassroots.