Raja Shivaji vs Ek Din vs Devil Wears Prada 2: Do holidays still aide box office?
The May 1 holiday has split screens between Raja Shivaji, The Devil Wears Prada 2 and Ek Din. Trade experts say the date can lift openings, but audiences now decide a film's fate far faster.
There are Fridays, and then there are Fridays that come as a national holiday, and May 1 is one of those dates. Not quite Diwali, not quite Eid, but dependable in its own understated way. A state celebration, Labour Day, Buddha Purnima, and this year, a long-weekend starter... the kind that nudges audiences out of their homes and into theatres, even if just for the idea of “doing something”.
This week, screens are being divided between Raja Shivaji, The Devil Wears Prada 2, and Ek Din, three films that don’t just represent different genres, but three very different ways of pulling audiences in. However, trade experts warn that while holidays continue to matter, they don’t decide outcomes anymore.
There was a time when a big holiday could almost single-handedly carry a film through its opening weekend. Extended weekends meant extended runs, and strong Day 1 numbers often translated into sustained box office journeys. But after the pandemic, the audience is sharper, quicker, and far less forgiving. The drop-offs are steeper, the word-of-mouth cycles faster, and the patience for mediocrity is almost non-existent. Even historically, films that opened big during festive windows have seen dramatic drops if the content didn’t hold- proving that a holiday can inflate numbers, but it can’t stabilise them.
On paper, Raja Shivaji is the biggest beneficiary of the date. Mounted on scale and backed by strong advance buzz, the film is already eyeing one of the strongest openings for a Marathi film, with estimates hovering at Rs 10 crore-plus for Day 1. Early trends suggest a steady build through the day, with evening and night shows expected to surge... the classic holiday pattern where walk-ins drive the second half of collections.
The Devil Wears Prada 2, on the other hand, is playing a completely different game. Its expectations aren’t headline-driven numbers but consistent occupancy, a film that will likely see Rs 5-7 crore range openings (including paid previews) in India, driven by urban multiplexes and nostalgia-led footfall. It doesn’t need the holiday to survive, but it certainly benefits from it. This is the kind of film people slot into a relaxed afternoon plan rather than rush for first-day-first-show.
And then there’s Junaid Khan and Sai Pallavi's Ek Din, expected to open even below Rs 1 crore. However, its fate entirely depends on the audience's feedback and word of mouth. This is where the holiday becomes both a blessing and a test: It ensures visibility, but it also accelerates judgment. Audiences watching it on a holiday are also the ones quickest to voice their opinion, and in today’s ecosystem, that opinion travels faster than any marketing campaign.
Riteish's choice of date for Raja Shivaji is absolutely working in his favour. While it has received a positive push in Maharashtra, it has also tapped well into the Hindi and Telugu markets. Ek Din has not opened to any worthy numbers and the traction is also low. Its fate entirely depends on whether the audience likes the film or not. While The Devil Wears Prada 2 is doing good numbers, it also continues to get footfalls," said producer and trade expert Girish Johar.
He further said that since the afternoon, numbers have increased, and now the weekend will play the deciding factor. He mentioned that it's too early to be analytical about films' performance on holiday vs non-holiday. "But one thing is for real, if it's a good film, people will watch it any day. And even if there are multiple films, all have done well historically, if they were worth a watch," Johar added.
Distributor Akkshaye Rathie, on the other hand, mentioned that while national holidays ensure a jump, we have had enough examples of non-holiday releases getting huge openings.
"Look at Jawan or even Baahubali or even non-star-led films like Laapata Ladies and 12th Fail. There is no formula for these days and numbers. Today, a film opens on its own merit, and how the film is promoted," he told us.
Rathie went on to decode the three big releases and mentioned how Raja Shivaji could open to more than Rs 15 crore (all languages included). He added that it has become the highest Marathi opening of all time.
"The Devil Wears Prada 2 is more of an urban pick, but it has its loyal audiences. And that can turn a film's performance in big ways. Ek Din is neither a franchise lead nor was there enough buzz around it. The film will be driven on word of mouth, and we all can hope it finds love and has a good run," he added.
The idea that content is king is no longer a cliche. It’s a pattern backed by numbers. Films are either holding spectacularly or collapsing just as dramatically, with very little middle ground left. The safety net that holidays once provided has thinned out, replaced by an audience that is spoilt for choice and brutally honest in response.
There are Fridays, and then there are Fridays that come as a national holiday, and May 1 is one of those dates. Not quite Diwali, not quite Eid, but dependable in its own understated way. A state celebration, Labour Day, Buddha Purnima, and this year, a long-weekend starter... the kind that nudges audiences out of their homes and into theatres, even if just for the idea of “doing something”.
This week, screens are being divided between Raja Shivaji, The Devil Wears Prada 2, and Ek Din, three films that don’t just represent different genres, but three very different ways of pulling audiences in. However, trade experts warn that while holidays continue to matter, they don’t decide outcomes anymore.
There was a time when a big holiday could almost single-handedly carry a film through its opening weekend. Extended weekends meant extended runs, and strong Day 1 numbers often translated into sustained box office journeys. But after the pandemic, the audience is sharper, quicker, and far less forgiving. The drop-offs are steeper, the word-of-mouth cycles faster, and the patience for mediocrity is almost non-existent. Even historically, films that opened big during festive windows have seen dramatic drops if the content didn’t hold- proving that a holiday can inflate numbers, but it can’t stabilise them.
On paper, Raja Shivaji is the biggest beneficiary of the date. Mounted on scale and backed by strong advance buzz, the film is already eyeing one of the strongest openings for a Marathi film, with estimates hovering at Rs 10 crore-plus for Day 1. Early trends suggest a steady build through the day, with evening and night shows expected to surge... the classic holiday pattern where walk-ins drive the second half of collections.
The Devil Wears Prada 2, on the other hand, is playing a completely different game. Its expectations aren’t headline-driven numbers but consistent occupancy, a film that will likely see Rs 5-7 crore range openings (including paid previews) in India, driven by urban multiplexes and nostalgia-led footfall. It doesn’t need the holiday to survive, but it certainly benefits from it. This is the kind of film people slot into a relaxed afternoon plan rather than rush for first-day-first-show.
And then there’s Junaid Khan and Sai Pallavi's Ek Din, expected to open even below Rs 1 crore. However, its fate entirely depends on the audience's feedback and word of mouth. This is where the holiday becomes both a blessing and a test: It ensures visibility, but it also accelerates judgment. Audiences watching it on a holiday are also the ones quickest to voice their opinion, and in today’s ecosystem, that opinion travels faster than any marketing campaign.
Riteish's choice of date for Raja Shivaji is absolutely working in his favour. While it has received a positive push in Maharashtra, it has also tapped well into the Hindi and Telugu markets. Ek Din has not opened to any worthy numbers and the traction is also low. Its fate entirely depends on whether the audience likes the film or not. While The Devil Wears Prada 2 is doing good numbers, it also continues to get footfalls," said producer and trade expert Girish Johar.
He further said that since the afternoon, numbers have increased, and now the weekend will play the deciding factor. He mentioned that it's too early to be analytical about films' performance on holiday vs non-holiday. "But one thing is for real, if it's a good film, people will watch it any day. And even if there are multiple films, all have done well historically, if they were worth a watch," Johar added.
Distributor Akkshaye Rathie, on the other hand, mentioned that while national holidays ensure a jump, we have had enough examples of non-holiday releases getting huge openings.
"Look at Jawan or even Baahubali or even non-star-led films like Laapata Ladies and 12th Fail. There is no formula for these days and numbers. Today, a film opens on its own merit, and how the film is promoted," he told us.
Rathie went on to decode the three big releases and mentioned how Raja Shivaji could open to more than Rs 15 crore (all languages included). He added that it has become the highest Marathi opening of all time.
"The Devil Wears Prada 2 is more of an urban pick, but it has its loyal audiences. And that can turn a film's performance in big ways. Ek Din is neither a franchise lead nor was there enough buzz around it. The film will be driven on word of mouth, and we all can hope it finds love and has a good run," he added.
The idea that content is king is no longer a cliche. It’s a pattern backed by numbers. Films are either holding spectacularly or collapsing just as dramatically, with very little middle ground left. The safety net that holidays once provided has thinned out, replaced by an audience that is spoilt for choice and brutally honest in response.
