Familiarity beats fresh faces in Tamil Nadu polls

In Tamil Nadu, which will go to the polls on April 23, will voters open the door to new faces, or continue to place their trust in seasoned leaders? As per the last three Assembly elections’ data from Ashoka University, analysed by India Today’s Data Intelligence Unit, the space for first-time candidates is shrinking.

In 2011, nearly 70 per cent of winners were first-time MLAs, which fell to 61 per cent in 2016, and dropped further to 52 per cent in 2021. At the same time, the share of second-term MLAs increased from 18 per cent in 2011 to 21 per cent in 2016, to 23 per cent in 2021. Candidates with three or more terms are also increasing.

From anti-incumbency to continuity

Tamil Nadu has historically been known for strong anti-incumbency. But that pattern now appears to be softening. According to the Asian Institute of Research, more constituencies in Tamil Nadu are sticking to their previous electoral choices rather than switching.

In 2021, more than half the constituencies voted in favour of the incumbent, marking a break from the state’s earlier pattern of frequent power shifts. In fact, in the last three Assembly elections, the success rate of incumbents has steadily risen.

In 2011, only 38 per cent of sitting MLAs managed to retain their seats, with 46 wins out of 121 contestants. This improved to 50 per cent in 2016, with 51 incumbents re-elected out of 103. By 2021, the number rose sharply to 61 per cent, with 82 out of 135 incumbent candidates winning again.