BJP hat-trick in Assam, NDA to sweep state, predicts poll of exit polls
Five exit polls converge on a decisive lead for the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in Assam, projecting 68-101 seats in the 126-member Assembly, comfortably above the majority mark.
The Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) remains firmly on course for a third straight term in Assam, with a broader poll of polls consolidating its lead across five exit poll surveys.
Taken together, projections from Axis My India, JVC, P-MARQ, People’s Pulse and Matrize place the NDA in a wide band of 68 to 101 seats in the 126-member Assembly -- well past the halfway mark of 63.
Axis My India pegs the NDA at 88-100 seats, while JVC projects 88-101. P-MARQ estimates a slightly lower 82-94 range. People's Pulse offers a more conservative 68-72, while Matrize places the alliance at 85–95 seats.
Note: Exit polls are based on surveys conducted among people who have exited poll booths after casting their votes. Exit polls aim to predict the mood among the voters but can get the forecast wrong.
For the Congress-led alliance (CONG+), estimates across pollsters range between 22 and 40 seats. Axis My India projects 24-36, JVC 23-33, and P-MARQ 30-40. People's Pulse estimates 22-26, while Matrize projects 25-32 seats.
Other parties are expected to have a limited presence, with projections ranging from 0 to 5 seats across surveys.
Earlier, Axis My India's detailed break-up suggested the BJP alone could win 70-80 seats, with allies Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) at 7-9 and Bodoland People’s Front (BPF) at 9-11.
Within the opposition bloc, the Congress was projected at 22-30 seats, with smaller allies adding marginal numbers.
VOTE SHARE REINFORCES NDA EDGE
In vote share terms, Axis My India estimates the NDA at 48 per cent, compared to 38 per cent for the Congress and 14 per cent for others.
The alliance is projected to secure around 48 per cent of the vote, compared to 38 per cent for the Congress-led bloc, reflecting a significant gap in voter support. The BJP alone accounts for about 37 per cent vote share, highlighting its central role within the alliance.
Other parties, including AIUDF and smaller regional outfits, are expected to remain marginal players with limited vote share and negligible seat impact.
REGIONAL TRENDS FAVOUR RULING BLOC
Region-wise projections suggest that the NDA's strength is spread across key parts of the state.
According to Axis My India, the NDA is expected to dominate Upper Assam with 26-28 seats out of 35, and Central Assam with 31-35 seats out of 41. In Bodoland, it is projected to nearly sweep the region with 13-15 out of 15 seats.
The Congress alliance is likely to perform relatively better in Lower Assam, where it is projected to win 12-14 seats, but this alone may not be enough to alter the overall outcome.
STABLE VOTER BASE, LIMITED CHURN
Axis My India data suggests that voter preferences have remained largely stable since the last Assembly elections.
The NDA is estimated to have retained around 74 per cent of its previous vote base, indicating strong continuity in support. The Congress alliance retains about 69 per cent, but has struggled to expand its reach significantly.
Smaller parties appear to have lost ground, with some of their vote share shifting towards the two main alliances, particularly the NDA. Overall, the exit poll points to a clear and stable mandate in favour of the NDA, rather than a fragmented verdict.
While the Congress-led alliance shows pockets of resistance, especially in select regions, it lacks the statewide momentum required to challenge the BJP-led coalition.
If these projections hold, Assam is likely to see continuity in governance, with the NDA returning to power for third consecutive term.