How BJP is revving up for the Battle of 2024

Over the past decade, the BJP, under Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Amit Shah, has transformed itself into a formidable poll machinery. It has fine-tuned the blueprint for electoral success and setbacks do not appear to ruffle the party. Rather, the BJP is quick to learn from mistakes and amend its election strategies.  

Even as the BJP is gearing up to defend its southern bastion of Karnataka, where elections will be held in May, the party hasn’t slowed down on restructuring of the organisation or outreach programmes in other parts of the country. The target is very clear: win the Lok Sabha election next year, and win it big.  

The BJP’s target for 2024 is to grab 50 per cent of the vote share, something no party has achieved. The BJP is confident that given its organisational strength, this is doable. Here’s a SWOT analysis of how the BJP is placed for the upcoming state elections and the Battle of 2024.  

KARNATAKA 

Advantages 

• Strong organisational structure 
• Bickering within rival Congress (D.K. Shivakumar vs Siddaramaiah) evident  
• Pro-Hindutva sentiment in the state 
• Making inroads into Vokkaliga and Kuruba vote bases 
• Roughly 60 new faces fielded  
• B.S. Yediyurappa, former chief minister and the tallest Lingayat leader in the state, is leading the assembly poll campaign

  Challenges 

• Chief minister Basavaraj Bommai failed to emerge as a regional satrap or increase party’s hold over the Lingayat community 
• Deep factionalism—former CM Jagadish Shettar and former deputy CM Laxman Savadi left the party 
• Corruption allegations, anti-incumbency 
• OBC narrative in question 
• Congress raking up local issues, avoiding direct attacks on PM Modi 

JAMMU & KASHMIR 

Advantages 

• Consolidation of the Hindu vote in Jammu 
• Post-delimitation, a BJP-led alliance could make some headway in Kashmir 
• Ghulam Nabi Azad’s exit has weakened the Congress. His fledgling outfit may split the anti-BJP vote 
• Opposition leaders like Omar Abdullah and Mehbooba Mufti have announced they may not contest the polls unless J&K’s special status is reinstated 

Challenges 

• If Gupkar Alliance contests the polls, it will consolidate the Opposition vote 
• Kashmiri Muslims remain peeved with the BJP over abrogation of Article 370 and downgrading of Kashmir into a Union territory 
• BJP lacks cadre base in the Kashmir Valley 

RAJASTHAN 

Advantages 

• Pro-Hindutva sentiment 
• PM Modi commands appeal 
• Anti-incumbency against chief minister Ashok Gehlot and Congress 
• BJP’s tribal outreach 
• The appointment of C.P. Joshi as BJP state unit chief, along with rejig of party organisation, uplifted cadre’s mood 

Challenges 

• Indecision over letting former CM Vasundhara Raje lead the poll campaign
• Impact of social sector schemes of the Ashok Gehlot government  
• BJP leadership’s backing of Union minister Gajendra Singh Shekhawat may not sync with the mood of state leaders  

MADHYA PRADESH 

Advantages 

• Hindutva agenda 
• PM Modi’s appeal 
• BJP’s hold over major OBC communities 

Challenges 

• Factionalism in state unit 
• BJP has accommodated too many Congress turncoats 
• Corruption scandals during BJP reign  

CHHATTISGARH 

Advantages 

• Outreach to tribal community 
• Consolidation of OBC base with appointment of Arun Sao as state unit chief 
• Anti-incumbency, corruption allegations against Congress government 

Challenges

• Indecision on former CM Raman Singh’s leadership and no clear alternative 
• Party’s inability to aggressively challenge the Bhupesh Baghel government on issues 

TELANGANA 

Advantages  

• PM Modi’s appeal 
• Outreach among OBCs 
• Hyper-Hindutva narrative working in urban centres 
• Restructuring of party    

Challenges 

• Absence of a tried and tested organisational structure 
• Hindutva appeal limited to urban centres 
• Infighting between BJP old timers and entrants from other parties  
• Other Opposition parties, such as Congress and TDP, still big in rural parts of the state 

ODISHA

Advantages 

• The organisational structure has been strengthened in the rural areas and extends across the state now
• BJP has two faces from Odisha in the Union cabinet—Dharmendra Pradhan and Ashwini Vaishnaw
• Party has capitalised on the decline of Congress in the state

Challenges 

• BJP lacks a leader who can be projected as an alternative to chief minister Naveen Patnaik 
• The BJP leadership doesn’t want to electorally hurt the Biju Janata Dal much, in return for indirect support extended in Parliament on crucial bills 
• BJP organisation needs to be restructured to build appeal among tribal and OBC communities 

LOK SABHA SEATS ON WATCH

Last May, the BJP had identified for special focus 144 Lok Sabha constituencies where it lost or barely won in 2019. The party deployed 25 Union ministers in these constituencies for a SWOT analysis. A majority of these seats are in six states—Punjab, West Bengal, Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Kerala. Following the split with Janata Dal (United) and the political realignment in Maharashtra, the party added 16 seats to the list. 

The BJP aims to win more than half of these seats in 2024. Among the Union ministers put in charge of the outreach are Piyush Goyal, Dharmendra Pradhan, Narendra Tomar, Giriraj Singh, Mansukh Mandaviya, Smriti Irani, Anurag Thakur, Sanjeev Balyan, Jitendra Singh and Mahendra Nath Pandey. They are tasked with building local leadership in these constituencies, gathering demographic data and overseeing implementation of the Modi government’s social sector schemes there. Based on surveys and data, the ministers have already earmarked the party’s weak presence in 130,000 booths across these constituencies.  

In January this year, the BJP launched a plan to hold public rallies in these clusters—to be addressed by Modi, Shah and party chief J.P. Nadda. Here’s a state-wise assessment of the party’s plan:

BIHAR 

Total LS seats: 40 

BJP*: 17 

Focus seats: 16 

Strategy 

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• Deploy former Bihar deputy CM Sushil Modi back in the state to take on Nitish Kumar 
• Corner Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) on corruption 
• Rework alliance with Chirag Paswan faction of Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) and Mukesh Sahani’s Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP), besides attracting the Kushwaha caste  
• Party appointed Kushwaha leader Samrat Choudhary as BJP state unit chief 
• Outreach among Pasmanda (extremely backward) Muslims  

Challenges 

• With the RJD, JD(U) and Congress in the ruling alliance, there is a strong chance of emergence of a Kurmi-Yadav-Muslim voting bloc 
• Results of the ongoing caste census in Bihar could disrupt caste equations in the state 
• If rivals amass Muslim and OBC votes, it will hurt the BJP

PUNJAB 

Total LS seats: 13 

BJP*: 2 

Focus seats: 9 

Strategy 

• Build the party in rural areas 
• Poach leaders from Congress, Akali Dal and integrate them into party framework 
• Build bridges with Sikh organisations 

Challenges 

• Residual anger in electorate over the now-repealed central farm laws 
• BJP unable to distance itself from allegations of corruption and misuse of power against leaders joining the party from the Congress and Akali Dal 
• BJP cadre unhappy with the inductions from other parties 
• BJP isn’t seen as an alternative in Punjab 
• Rise of radical elements in rural Punjab 

MAHARASHTRA 

Total LS seats: 48 

BJP*: 23 

Focus seats: 18 

Strategy 

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• Establish BJP as the sole custodian of Hindutva politics 
• Project Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena faction as the real Sena 
• Strengthen entry into rural pockets with more penetration into institutions there, including cooperatives 

Challenges 

• An aggressive BJP may unite MVA (Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi) constituents  
• Shinde faction of Shiv Sena untested electorally 
• Limited tenure to turn around party’s fortunes 

KERALA 

Total LS seats: 20 

BJP*: 0 

Focus seats: 5 

Strategy 

• Work with Christian groups that have alienated from the Congress 
• Bring new leadership in the state, especially in youth organisations 

Challenges 

• RSS has a deep network in the state but is unable to transfer votes to the BJP 
• Party’s leader and cadre presence on the ground weak 

WEST BENGAL 

Total LS seats: 42 

BJP*: 17 

Focus seats: 15   

Strategy 

• Position BJP as sole opposition to Trinamool Congress (TMC) 
• Take Hindutva, nationalism narratives to the rural areas 
• Reach out to the Bengali ‘bhadralok’ segment in urban centres 

Challenges 

• Exodus from party towards TMC could increase as elections approach 
• Breakdown in organisational structure in parts of the state 
• Factionalism in state unit 

UTTAR PRADESH 

Total LS seats: 80 

BJP*: 64 

Focus seats: 20 

Strategy 

• Outreach to Jatav and Yadav communities (support base of Bahujan Samaj Party and Samajwadi Party, respectively) and Jats 
• High-decibel coverage of centrally sponsored welfare schemes 
• Build a ‘controlled’ Hindutva narrative 
• Timely construction of Ram temple in Ayodhya 
• Wooing Pasmanda Muslims 

Challenges 

• Hindutva stance dissuades Muslims from backing party 
• Anti-incumbency against second-term BJP MPs 
• Party’s no-dynasty rule and norm of retiring leaders over 70 years of age have caused some uncertainty among cadre 

(*LS seats won by BJP in 2019) 

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