A detailed account of the Gulf War and its implications

Click here to EnlargeThe plot was familiar, the script stirring and the performances, honed by five months of rehearsal, slick. Yet last week as the blitzkrieg by the US-led coalition (somewhat presumptuously referred to as the allies) completed its first fortnight, the denouement still seemed far away and elusive.Militarily, coalition forces were doing everything right: inflicting more casualties, controlling the skies, pinning down ground forces, achieving tactical surprise and supremacy. However, the question was, how to defeat an enemy that refuses to accept defeat, no matter what the score in terms of bodies on the ground or aircraft shot out of the skies? This, the underdog's obstinate refusal to concede defeat, is not a problem that generals are Unfamiliar with. Chinese war philosopher Sun Tzu ruminated over it 2,400 years ago, when he wrote a treatise on how what mattered was breaking the will of the enemy and not decimating his armies physically to make him "concede defeat in the mind". Far from defeated, Iraqis were defiant as they pumped lakhs of barrels of crude into the Gulf, creating history's biggest oil slick that threatened the region's environment specifically the desalination plants supplying drinking water to Saudi Arabia.Last week, after more than 12,000 combat sorties that dropped explosive tonnage equivalent of 15 Hiroshimas over Iraq - except that this time the tonnage came wrapped in the casings of smart, precision guided bombs and missiles - the US and coalition partners were wondering what to do next to break the will of a nation that was showing such resilience despite having been led by a despot and emaciated by five months of sanctions. One answer was a massive blitz of psywar (psychological warfare), once again rehearsed and planned for several months at the John F. Kennedy Special Warfare School in North Carolina. Loads of pamphlets, exhorting the Iraqi conscripts to surrender rather than face certain defeat and death, were rained over Saddam Hussain's concentrations.There were reports, that were planted one day but dismissed the other, of large-scale defections, of execution of Iraqi generals and general discontent. Desperate to avoid a frontal assault and casualties, the allies were playing one last card to destroy the will of the "enemy" before the issue was settled tank to tank, bayonet to bayonet. Not that the allies were worried about defeat."There is absolutely no doubt that we are winning. We just have to be patient," said Norman Schwarzkopf, the toughtalking, acerbic and colourful US general commanding the coalition forces.At the political level, however, patience seemed to be running out. The display of obviously battered allied POWs on Iraqi TV was a miscalculation that improved US popular support for the war and incensed Bush.A walk down the tire exit of the Al Rashid hotel in Baghdad, once voted among the world's 20 best hotels and now famous as the haunt of newsmen reporting on the war, gives an indication of Saddam's staying power. It is, simply, that his entire capital and large parts of the other cities, are built for protracted war. The Al Rashid stairs lead several levels below ground into its hardened underbelly, a large basement which is not just bomb-proof, but even nuclear-proof. Every other hotel has a tell-tale sign on the staircase, pointing at the shelter. So do most office complexes, apartment buildings, shopping centres. The country has been built for war physically and mentally. The Iraqis had built bomb shelters with most of the new buildings. A look at Baghdad shows how much of it has been built in the past decade or so. Saddam thus is not the only Iraqi to enjoy the privilege of having the security of an underground bunker.Secret of Saddam's StrategyWily Politics, Dug-in ArmyA Costly WarThe per day cost in the first phase of the war has been calculated at Rs 3,700 crore. The official US estimate of a three month war, taking replacement costs for equipment and presuming minimum casualties, is $89 billion or Rs 1,64,650 crore which is 40 per cent of India's annual income. Also, while Saddam may be a dictator and a despot or even foolhardy, he is not stupid. He has perfected a strategy based on the West's weaknesses: over confidence and reluctance to accept casualties. When he prepared for war he knew exactly what the equation was. His advisors and lieutenants often sketched a war scenario strikingly similar to the ones painted by their western counterparts: several days of precise bombing by massed allied aircraft, an electronic blitz, flattening of key targets with long range missiles and carpet bombing of troop concentrations. They admitted they had almost no capability to deny the coalition their airspace. They concentrated, instead, on denying them their prized targets. It was common knowledge in Baghdad that the Government had used the preparatory time to move vital equipment, command centres and the decision-making military bureaucracy to the safety of underground basements. When the bombers came they did not miss. From eyewitness accounts by the expatriates fleeing Iraq it is evident that the bombing was precise and surgical, flattening exactly the buildings that were targeted. Whether what was left inside the buildings was of any consequence or not is another question. In fact, even on the eve of the war the joke among the western diplomatic corps in Baghdad was that Saddam had moved everything from his headquarters except the flies on pay and pension of his troops as they wouldn't need them anyway after the war.Indian generals who trained them in the past say the Iraqis may be unimaginative but are fast learners. Saddam too learnt a few lessons from Iran and one of these was that with resolve and tactics you could fight against an enemy controlling the skies. Those close to his inner circle in Baghdad say he studied the Iranian tactics closely, perfected some in his own defence of Basra and filled the gaps by going on an arms buying spree. He is believed to have spent nearly $250 billion or the bulk of his oil revenues over six years in rearming his forces.As he flourished the dollar the Western companies made a beeline for Baghdad. The French built his nuclear plants, Germans chemicals factories, Belgians constructed the bunkers. The Soviets, despite their political estrangement with Ba'athists provided latest MiG-29s and surface to air missiles against hard currency and when Iraqis were on the run around Basra the Americans gave them vital satellite information. Western companies also helped Saddam modify his Scuds. Columns of smoke cloud the Baghdad skyline as the first coalition bombers returnThe coalition mounted an air assault unmatched in ferocity and accuracy in the history of modern warfare but failed to break either the will of Saddam Hussain or the backbone of his war-hardened command structure. Chickens are now coming home to roost. The Iraqis also knew that a major coalition effort would go into suppressing the Scuds and thus took special care to save them. Western military sources now confirm that the Iraqis are working along an elaborate, well-rehearsed shoot-and-scoot plan. Launchers are hidden under highway underpasses, grain silos and underground parking lots from where they are pulled out for a short while, fired and then driven back in their safe harbours. Besides, the Iraqis have played a frustrating game of cat and mouse with coalition air power and satellites, by planting scores of decoy missile launchers.All the Iraqis have to do is light a fire under a decoy launcher. In a cold environment in the night the satellite's infra-red sensors are bound to pick it up and as the data is tallied with the reconnaissance aircraft's findings a raid is launched to knock out the decoy. How many decoys are included in the coalition's claims of destroyed Scud missiles is a question with a vital bearing on the future course of the war. For, as long as some Scud launchers are available, Saddam will have the capability of unleashing chemical attacks on distant targets including Israel, keeping the allies on tenterhooks.Iraq's conservation of much of its air force, through a combination of shrewd camouflage and dispersal, is yet another surprise for the allies but will be of lesser consequence as the war progresses. Once in the air the Iraqi aircraft are sitting ducks for western aircraft fitted with BVR (beyond visual range) radar-missile combinations. As the dozen or so air engagements have shown, the Iraqi aircraft have been shot down before they could even sight western intruders. An air force is no good if permanently grounded and the Iraqi Air Force is as good as finished if it takes to wings.Five O'clock FolliesThe allied campaign has its share of exaggerated claims in the euphoria of war. Examples:Destruction of Iraqi Air Force after the first air assault - now 70 per cent believed to be intact. Destruction of all the fixed Scud launchers, a claim belied by repeated Iraqi missile attacks. Paralysing of Iraqi command, control and communication systems - but Saddam still seemed very much in control of his forces. Decimation of the Republican Guard.Saddam would thus like to preserve his air force and basically confront the coalition raids with passive, ground based air defence built around a multitude of missiles and antiaircraft artillery. Iraq has nearly 5,000 anti-aircraft guns and can saturate the skies with flak around sensitive targets. Ninety per cent of the allied aircraft lost so far have fallen to this primitive defence. Senior Indian Air Force (IAF) officers say that the essential components of passive air defence are runway repair ability and ability to fly from semi-prepared runways. Iraqis have over the years stocked quick-drying cements to repair runways. "Moreover, for passive air defence, a simple ultra high frequency (UHF) radio communication will suffice, particularly since there is only one army to coordinate," says a senior officer in Indian air defence artillery. Saddam may later use some of his surviving aircraft in suicidal attacks, possibly over Israel. Military attaches in Baghdad and neighbouring capitals single out the obsolete Soviet-made Sukhoi-7 in this context. An aircraft that even IAF discarded nearly five years ago, the Su-7 carries a warload of 8,000 pounds over long distances.It is also equipped to fly from rough surfaces and can land on skids. At some stage the Iraqis could use suicidal waves of these aircraft in the hope that some will penetrate prized targets in Israel or Saudi Arabia. A senior Indian air commodore, who was a member of the IAF training missions in Iraq, told India Today in Delhi that, additionally, the Iraqi MiG-29s have low presssure tyres and could use rough strips or highways to operate even when the runways are all knocked out.As part of his tactics to delay the coalition advance and to inflict the maximum causalties Saddam recently moved his Tactical Reserve (consisting of two divisions plus having T-55 tanks) from along the Wadi al Batin (a river bed) in the west to near Kuwait City. Troops from US airborne divisions practise helicopter assaults in the desertNow the allies face the devil's alternative of going into land assaults against fortified Iraqi positions entailing heavy casualties despite their mobility and technological edge. The Iraqis hope the desert will consume them. The idea was to give the force greater flexibility of deployment. The positioning of the Republican Guards as a strategic reserve (T-72 tanks) in the area north of Kuwait and south of Basra is aimed at preventing a blow in the rear through an airborne assault and to stall a rollover into Iraq, if Kuwait falls. The Republican Guard is Saddam's final card. In fact its former commander, Gen. Hussain Rashid, has been elevated as the chief of army staff.Saddam's military preparation is complimented by a remarkable emotional buildup. Many in the West wonder why Iraqis would fight a self-destructive war for a dictator. But that is because the western analysts look at an Arab nation with culturally blinkered eyes. To a people so utterly unfamiliar with democracy of any sort Saddam is merely a leader who made them discover a national identity. As Mohammed Saeed Al Sahhaf, Iraqi minister of state for foreign affairs, says, "Saddam has reminded his people and the world that we are not a banana republic. We are Mesopotamia, cradle of the Arab civilisation. It is worth dying for." The allied strategists failed to take this factor into account.The Coalition's DilemmaHow to Win Quickly But With Minimum Casualties Al Hussain missiles: The improved Iraqi version of the Soviet Scud-B has been reaching Tel Aviv and Riyadh with frightening accuracy. And so well has Saddam played the game of shoot-and-scoot with his mobile launchers that the allied planes and satellites have still not spotted out a large number of them. One of the most persistent images of the war will be an American pilot interviewed on his return from a strike mission. "It was a good mission, just as in training," he said. "We came to give Saddam a kick in the butt, we did it." The problem facing the American strategist now is, what happens when the "enemy" is undaunted by a mere "kick in the butt". "Let Saddam boast. The moment he sees one B-52 bomber overhead, he will rush with a white flag," a western diplomat had told India Today in Baghdad. Now, calculations had changed. The Americans now have to make that one extremely crucial decision which they had worked so hard to avoid for so many months: when, where, and how to launch the land attack.Just as he was prepared for the air assault, Saddam is dug in more than adequately for defence on the ground. His army defends Kuwait on more or less Soviet lines - the ditch-cum-bund or DCB doctrine not unfamiliar in the subcontinent. The defensive formations are arrayed along four layers of anti-tank ditches and bunds. "It Will Be a Long War"Naji Al Hadithi, chief of information, editor of the Baghdad Observer and Iraq's most prominent spokesman.On fighting a superpower: Here is an arrogant President of a country that thinks it is the only superpower and should teach the others a lesson.On Iraq's strategy: We will make it a long war and will deny the enemy the advantage of speed.On Kuwait: Who will fight for the Kuwaitis? The sheikh who took a wife every Thursday? Or their young men who are all vacationing in Europe? Or the poor, exploited Palestinians? Kuwait is a bogey used by the US to come and fight for Israel.If the Americans are able to cross one ditch and bund they will have to traverse open space till they reach the second ditch. It is in this open space that the attention of the sizeable, massed Iraqi artillery will be focused turning it into a veritable killing ground for the allied forces.The coalition, consequently, is shy of making a frontal assault and seems to prefer the option of a northwards thrust through Iraqi territory to outflank the Kuwaiti defences and split the Iraqi Army and the elite Republican Guard that brings up the rear. At the same time Marines and other special- forces could launch a joint amphibious and heliborne assault from the Gulf to take Kuwait City and vital installations. The plan would be to trap a largely conscripted, under-paid and poorly-led Iraqi Army in a doublepincer with no place to run.But if the Iraqis fight on, drag the battle into the built-up areas of Kuwait and perhaps Al Faw, the city on the edge of southern Iraq only recently rebuilt after total destruction in the eight-year-war, they could extract a price the allies cannot afford. In open desert and builtup urban areas the casualty rate could be 50 times higher than that in Vietnam. "A New Kind of Security"Jordan's Crown Prince Hassan Bin Talal has been strongly pleading for a peaceful settlement.On the failure of peace efforts: We did not address the diplomatic solution. In the talks with Baker, Tariq Aziz said Iraq would accept the principle of withdrawal if it is also applied elsewhere. I saw no attempt to pick that chestnut out of the fire. On the future of the Middle East: Saudi Arabia has bought arms worth $250 billion in the past few years. Iraq has spent just as much. Kuwait bought arms worth $50 billion. How much security did it bring? We have to think.Even the games simulated at the US Army Desert Warfare Centre at Fort Irwin have indicated high casualties in ideal textbook conditions if the Iraqis decide to fight. In Vietnam 52,000 Americans had died in low-intensity conflict over 12 years. In open desert that provides no cover and against murderous firepower of an entrenched enemy the casualties could reach the 10,000-mark within a week of fighting.Among the coalition commanders there are already apprehensions that the Iraqis will fight, at least for a few days. Against Iran, the Iraqi Army's performance was dismal. But today the mood is different. Queried on his army's poor record against Iran an Iraqi brigadier told INDIA TODAY in Baghdad: "We are not stupid. We have gone over that question very, very carefully. The problem was that we did not hate the Iranians enough. Americans are a different matter altogether.""Iraq Will Be Punished"Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel's deputy foreign minister, is the most articulate champion of his country's cause.On the missile scare: The Israeli Government and Army will not tolerate a daily lottery in which the people go into a sealed room and wait for a bomb. On retaliation: Something un-lsraeli is happening. Today retaliation isn't our principle concern. We've taken note of what Saddam's done. When we want to punish there's plenty we can do. On the future: I don't know what Saddam is going to do. We are not sitting in Saddam Hussain's bunker. But we can't just sit and wait for ever.The motivating force of anti-Americanism is something the Americans themselves understand so well now. That is what limits their options even more severely. If they go into land battle quickly, they may suffer heavy casualties. If they delay the inevitable for too long, the growing surge of anti-Americanism among their own allied Muslim states may break the coalition. Soon enough, they will have to choose the devil's alternative. They have to lock horns with a dug-in army and risk casualties to break the stalemate for, as the infantrymen always so cynically say,in war victory is still measured by the foot. As time passes, opposition will also grow to attacks on Iraq's infrastructure. The UN resolution authorised the allies to free Kuwait and not to destroy Iraq as an economic and military power. Click here to EnlargeThe next question will be the financial cost of a long war. The Airland battle 2000 doctrine, involving the tandem movement of air and ground assaults is a concept written and rehearsed for Central Europe where, against an invading Eastern Bloc army, any cost would have been justified. To employ it against a ragtag Third World army now will hardly be a cost-effective exercise.Sure enough, there will be long-term spin-offs in terms of increasing foreign demand for battle-proven systems. But the immediate effect will strain an already stretched US economy to limits.The Uneasy AllianceCan it Survive the Onslaught of Saddamism?Pro-Saddam Palestinian rally in AmmanBy reopening Arab wounds, Saddam has become the Middle East's first truly cult pan-Arabic figure.Aswathe of vicious anti-Americanism cuts across the entire Islamic world, from North Africa to Pakistan and then onwards in the east up to Malaysia. Last week demonstrations turned violent in several parts of Pakistan, from Karachi to the Frontier. In Syria and Egypt, the two crucial Arab members of the coalition, the militant right-wing Muslim brotherhood was exploiting the situation.In the course of time it was inevitable that similar feelings of Islamic kinship will come to the fore in the sheikhdoms as well. The American embassies in most capitals of the Islamic countries aligned with them have been surrounded by double barricades and citizens given orders to move out. The longer the war continues, the longer the denouement is delayed, the stronger the protests will get. Pakistan is a striking example. The country has a detachment of 10,000 troops, including an armoured brigade in the front echelons in Saudi Arabia. Yet the support for Saddam is visible on every street-corner in colourful posters depicting a uniformed, benign Saddam bent in prayer before the holy Al Aqsa mosque or the Bait-ul-Muqaddas in Jerusalem, Islam's third holiest shrine. Fighters fly overhead and soldiers march while the inscription reads: "Ya Allah, give us too Saddam's zeal to liberate our holy places." In a series of meetings over the past fortnight, the support for Saddam and opposition to the US has cut across party lines even bringing out several leaders of the ruling IJI coalition openly against the involvement of Pakistani troops. The Jamaat-e-Isiami, an IJI constituent, is itself in the forefront of the anti-US drive. "This is a war between the Ummah (the Islamic world) and America.The Muslims should try Bush at every street corner for foisting war on them and give him exemplary punishment," Syed Munawar Hassan, emir of the Karachi unit of the Jamaat, told a large gathering last fortnight. The Pakistan Government has clamped down, banning the sale of Saddam posters and bumper stickers. But there is no stopping the wave.British army engineers blast a minefield along the Kuwaiti desertThe ground war will be as much a test of will and technology as of raw guts and the ability to absorb losses.In terms of manpower, Iraq enjoys superiority, but the average Iraqi soldier should not be rated too highlyEven in Egypt, far away on the western edge of Asia and known for a relatively secular system, the sympathy for a fellow Islamic underdog is growing. Personally, Saddam has been hated for long in Egypt. Today the ordinary Egyptian has more specific complaints with him. Their army has been drawn into war. The tourist season is finished as, because of the rear of terrorist attacks, the Government has even blocked entry to the Pyramids and locked up the museums. Yet, as the allied offensive gets more intense, a growing streak of sympathy is visible. "It's an Arab problem that should have been left to the Arabs to sort out," said Adnan, a Cairo University research scholar. In neighbouring Jordan and the occupied Palestinian territories the mood is almost fanatically pro-Saddam. Initially, as reports of the first air assaults came in, Palestinians were stunned, not even stirring to look out of the windows at the Israeli soldiers enforcing the curfew. The Lighter SideCaught In the midst of a hopeless war people haven't lost their sense of humour. In Baghdad, a poster shows Bush, in shorts and a Hawaiian shirt, standing next to an ail-American barbecue, roasting a skewered dove of peace. Jordanians say they are caught between Iraq and a hard place. The Iraqi media and officials often pronounce Bush as "Boosh" which is a local obscenity. Some other samples:How do the Kuwaitis say Blsmillah in the morning: Bushmillah.How do the Palestinians say salam aleikum: Saddam aleikum.Why are the Israelis stacking salami in their bomb shelters?Because Saddam Is sending them free mustard (mustard gas).Saddam was worried about his son Udey's poor English. So he called the chief of Mukhabrat, his intelligence service, and asked who the best English tutor in Iraq was."Ibrahim, at Baghdad University," said the spy chief."Get Ibrahim," ordered Saddam.The next evening, Saddam remembered the tutor and called the intelligence chief. "What happened to Ibrahim?" he asked."No problem, sir. We got him. We interrogated him. He confessed. We shot him."But the moment the first missiles fell on Israel the depression was replaced by euphoria as many came out on the streets to the accompaniment of "bil dam, rooh dam nasdikiya saddam". (We'll give you blood, we'll give you soul, we'll give you all we have, Saddam). Saddam may be faulted on moral grounds. But politically, his moves have been shrewd and calculated. To deflect attention from his own annexation of Kuwait, he has effectively exhumed many old ghosts and reopened raw Arab wounds. Palestine, Pan-Arabism and the distrust between the rich oil-Arabs and non-oil Arabs are old fires that Saddam has rekindled. To add fuel to this he has deftly used anti-Americanism and Islam. The last thing the Americans now want is this rampant growth of the Saddam cult which could turn a military victory into political defeat. This, the Islamisation of Saddamism, is a phenomenon as ironical as it is worrisome for the West. "It is a paradox that Saddam is now projecting himself as an Islamic leader," says Said Sonbol, editor-in-chief of Cairo's state-owned daily Al Akhbar. Sonbol explains that Saddam is a Ba'athist and not an Islamic leader "and thus all this talk of jehad is so unreal". But among the Muslims, and the Arabs in particular, it sounds all so sweet and real. As a top Jordanian official said, you have to be an Arab to understand Saddam's appeal. In four decades of warfare an Arab aircraft has not penetrated Israeli air space to hit Tel Aviv. Today the Israelis sit cowering in their shelters as he rains Scuds over them.The Decisive PhaseDoes Peace Have a Chance?Saddam posters selling in KarachiAn anti-US wave is sweeping the Islamic world forcing the US to bring a quick end to the war.As war moves into its critical phase, rival plans and strategies are clear. The Americans want a quick, and relatively bloodless victory. The Iraqis' priority is to deny them victory and, if that is not possible, to raise costs to such a level that it becomes embarrassingly expensive.For the Americans, a crucial question is, how long can they continue to control their media to prevent domestic public opinion from turning hostile. Americans would like to be done with it all before too many wailing widows appear on television. Also for the allies any victory against Saddam will be meaningless if it is accompanied by the building of the man, dead or alive, as an Arab-Islamic cult figure. It could lead to the growth of radical Islamic movements and the overthrow of the pro-American but unelected regimes in Muslim countries. Ironically, this itself becomes a compulsion that renders peace efforts futile. It will not be enough for the alliance if Kuwait is freed. They want Saddam destroyed so they could take care of Saddamism later. Having built himself into a 20th century Saladin, Saddam has painted himself into a corner where he must fight to the bitter end. Barring miracles the war will inevitably move into the next, bloodier and perhaps decisive phase soon, as the beaches of Kuwait echo with the cries of the Marines' Semper Fi and the Iraqis' Allah-o-Akbar to soon drown in the screams of the-wounded and the dying.Published By: AtMigration Published On: Feb 15, 1991 00:00 IST--- ENDS ---

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A detailed account of the Gulf War and its implications

Far from defeated, Iraqis were defiant as they pumped lakhs of barrels of crude into the Gulf, creating history's biggest oil slick that threatened the region's environment specifically the desalination plants supplying drinking water to Saudi Arabia.

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