Jharkhand | How Hemant won against all odds

From the chief minister’s colonial-era bungalow on Ranchi’s Kanke Road, once considered jinxed for its occupant, to the stark windowless confines of a room in the Enforcement Directorate’s office basement, and ultimately to a cell in Birsa Munda Central Jailâ¦. The world of Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) scion Hemant Soren had contracted dramatically earlier this year. Arrested on January 31 by the ED for his alleged involvement in a land-grab case, the 49-year-old Adivasi leader’s political ambitions were shackled at a critical juncture—in the very runup to the Lok Sabha election. So write down the JMM-led alliance’s impressive victory in the assembly polls first and foremost as a riveting saga of individual grit. Denied any reprieve to campaign for the parliamentary polls, his political rivals thrived. The BJP-led NDA swept Jharkhand, clinching nine out of its 14 LS seats. Yet, amidst the gloom, there was a silver lining or two. During his absence, his wife Kalpana Soren stepped into the breach with aplomb, emerging as a political force with crossover appeal. A soft-spoken polyglot with cosmopolitan awareness, she made her presence felt as much within the Santhal homelands as on the national stage, sharing the podium with the big names of the INDIA bloc. As it happened, the Opposition alliance, of which Soren’s JMM is a key member, held its ground in the state’s tribal heartland. It won all five Scheduled Tribe-reserved seats. For good measure, Kalpana also won the Gandey assembly bypoll with over 50 per cent of the votes. Soren’s party also successfully framed his arrest as an anti-tribal ploy orchestrated by the BJP-led Centre.But when a bearded and long-haired Hemant Soren walked out of jail on June 28 after securing bail, there were significant challenges for the state polls that were now just months away—the LS results had given the BJP-led NDA leads in 50 of Jharkhand’s 81 assembly segments. His father Shibu Soren, the tallest tribal leader in the state, could not campaign due to poor health. Soren soon recognised that his chosen successor, 68-year-old Champai Soren, lacked the guile to outwit the BJP and inspire party cadres. Soren reclaimed the chief ministership on July 4. A disappointed Champai defected to the BJP a month later.Fast forward to November 23, and the assembly results have affirmed Soren as Jharkhand’s most popular leader—the first CM ever to return to power. The verdict was emphatic—the JMM-led INDIA bloc swept 56 out of 81 assembly seats, leaving the BJP-led NDA struggling with a mere 24. The JMM alone bagged 34 seats—its best-ever performance. Its allies bolstered the win: the Congress claimed 16 seats, the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) added four, and the Communist Party of India (Marxist-Leninist) Liberation held up two. For the NDA, the results were sobering. The BJP managed 21 seats; while its partners—the All Jharkhand Students Union (AJSU), Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas), and Janata Dal (United)—could muster just one apiece. HEMANT CHECKMATES BJPTo outmanoeuvre the BJP, Soren had to broad-base his tactics. Adivasi pride would only hold up the heartland; if anything, it could sharpen the tribal-vs-others divide and deepen the anti-incumbency that had enabled the BJP to dominate the non-tribal seats. Soren launched the Maiya Samman Yojana in August, a scheme offering a monthly stipend of Rs 1,000 to economically disadvantaged women aged 18 to 50. Over five million women were enrolled, and money started rolling into their bank accounts. Targeting this universal, segment-neutral demographic of eligible voters was a masterstroke. The BJP, sensing the impact, countered by promising Rs 2,100 a month, but Soren was one step ahead. A day before the model code of conduct came into effect, he announced an increase in the stipend to Rs 2,500. There were other freebies too, like a waiver of Rs 3,500 crore in electricity dues, benefiting 4 million households.The results told the tale. Women voters turned out in record numbers, with 70.46 per cent casting their ballots, compared to 65.06 per cent of eligible male voters. In 68 out of 81 seats, women outvoted men, shaping the outcome and giving INDIA a crucial edge even in non-reserved seats. A Lokniti CSDS post-poll survey confirms women voters favoured INDIA and Maiya Samman was a factor. Also, over half of those voters who prioritised state matters supported INDIA, with one-third preferring Hemant as CM.Altogether, Jharkhand has 44 non-reserved seats, which have been a BJP support base. Here, the saffron party could only hold its 2019 tally of 17, while the JMM improved its tally from nine to 12 seats. The Congress took seven and the RJD three. The tactics bore fruit even in the nine Scheduled Caste-reserved seats, where the BJP’s 2019 tally of six seats came down to three, whereas the JMM, Congress and the RJD together bagged five.The other X-factor was Kalpana. By the time Hemant resumed office, he could find in his wife an ally who was developing a formidable political nous. With a natural flair for connecting with crowds and fluent in Santhali, Bangla and Hindi (besides English), she addressed over 100 rallies and was especially well received by women. TRIUMPH IN TRIBAL AREASThe BJP, acutely aware of its vulnerability among Jharkhand’s tribal voters—who constitute 26.3 per cent of the population—did make a concerted effort to woo them. A year ago, it appointed Babulal Marandi, a Santhal tribal leader like Hemant Soren, to helm its Jharkhand unit. Alongside Marandi, the BJP deployed three former tribal CMs—Arjun Munda, Madhu Koda, and Champai Soren—to strengthen its tribal outreach.However, Soren, buoyed by widespread tribal sympathy following his arrest, skilfully positioned himself as the sole custodian of Adivasi interests and asmita (pride). His campaign highlighted an “exiÂstential threat to tribal identity under a BJP-led government”. Soren's push for a 1932-based domicile policy for government jobs and recognition of the Sarna religion as a key part of tribal identity resonated strÂongly, with the CSDS survey highlighting widespread support for the latter. Tying it all up was the urgent appeal to restore the rule of tribals against a “feudal” BJP that falsely implicated a son of the soil. The strategy paid off spectacularly, with the JMM-led alliance sweeping 27 of the 28 tribal-reserved seats. The JMM alone secured 20 of the 21 tribal seats it contested, while the Congress claimed all its seven tribal seats.The scale of the BJP’s defeat in ST-reserved seats was huge. Even high-profile candidates struggled: Meera Munda and Geeta Koda, wives of former CMs Arjun Munda and Madhu Koda, both lost. Champai Soren held on to Saraikela, but his son, Babulal Soren, suffered a defeat.A section of BJP leaders acknowledge strategic missteps. For instance, Marandi’s failure was partly attributed to his decision to contest from a non-tribal seat, which undermined the party’s own need to use him to shore up its credibility among tribals. Privately, many Jharkhand BJP leaders concede the party’s overemphasis on the narrative of “Bangladeshi infiltration” backfired. Assam chief minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, serving as the party’s co-in-charge for Jharkhand, spearheaded a campaign on alleged infiltration in the Santhal Parganas. Senior leaders, including Amit Shah, amplified this, framing it as a grave threat to tribal identity. BJP leaders branded it as “love and land jihad”, alleging that “infiltrators” were marrying tribal women to seize their assets. Despite having substantive issues to address—poverty, unemployment and their dismal corollary, out-migration, besides corruption—the BJP favoured a fear-driven narrative. It was resoundingly rejected by voters.Tribals and Muslims (14.5 per cent of the population) account for nearly 41 per cent of the electorate, who typically lean towards the JMM. The CSDS survey shows 90 per cent of Muslims, 72 per cent of Oraon, 60 per cent of Munda and 42 per cent Santhal voters went with the INDIA bloc. The NDA’s consolation was backing from 48 per cent of Santhal voters. There was another piece in the jigsaw that went missing: the numerically significant OBC Mahto community which usually backs the NDA. With the emergeÂnce of Jairam Mahto’s Jharkhand Loktantrik Krantikari Morcha (JLKM), this vote was fragmented. While Jairam was the sole winner, JLKM candidates siphoned off enough votes to hurt the NDA. In at least 15 seats where the NDA lost, the JLKM’s vote share exceeded the margin of defeat, underscoring its disruptive impact.BJP state president Marandi has shown no inclination towards a course correction after the setback. Even after the results, he was heard saying: “Bangladeshi infiltration is not merely an election issue. It is a question of...the future of the tribal community.” Some BJP leaders admit Marandi's reinduction had failed as a strategy. At 69, Jharkhand’s first CM has struggled to broaden the party’s appeal. Murmurs are growing within BJP ranks about the need for a leadership change. As internal discontent simmers, the BJP’s direction in Jharkhand is uncertain.CHALLENGES FOR THE CMOn November 26, he and Kalpana travelled to New Delhi and met Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge and party stars Rahul and Priyanka Gandhi. The couple also paid a visit to Prime Minister Narendra Modi. With the election behind them, the Sorens are keen to put the acrimonious campaign behind.Actually, Soren might need a helping hand from the Centre. He faces a daunting financial challenge. Soren has reiterated his demand that the Centre release Rs 1.36 lakh crore, which he claims is owed to Jharkhand for unpaid coal royalties, compensation for land acquisition and interest on delayed payments. The Maiya Samman scheme alone is expected to cost the state exchequer Rs 15,000 crore every year. There are other expensive promises to keep—giving LPG cylinders to households at Rs 450 and hiking minimum support prices of paddy to Rs 3,200 a quintal. Other pledges include hiking reservation for STs, SCs and OBCs and generating a million jobs. “I am not asking for special status or a special budget,” Soren, who was sworn in as CM on November 28, has previously stated. “We only want what is rightfully ours.” A battle of a different kind awaits him.- EndsPublished By: Shyam BalasubramanianPublished On: Nov 29, 2024 15:48 IST

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Jharkhand | How Hemant won against all odds

The inside story of how the JMM leader overcame imprisonment and a vicious, polarising campaign against him to fell the mighty BJP

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