TVK tipped No.1 in Tamil Nadu by Axis My India, other exit polls show DMK ahead

Exit poll projections for the 2026 Tamil Nadu assembly elections indicate a potential shift in the state's political landscape. Axis My India projects a significant debut for actor-turned-politician Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), predicting the party could secure between 98 and 120 seats with a 35 percent vote share. The ruling DMK-led alliance is projected to win 90 to 110 seats, also with a 35 percent vote share, while the AIADMK-led opposition trails with an estimated 22 to 32 seats. Analysts highlight the TVK's traction among urban and rural voters, particularly women and youth demographics, as a factor in these results. While other pollsters like Matrize and P-MARQ project a DMK victory with fewer seats for the TVK, the data suggests a transition from a traditional bipolar contest to a multi-pronged fight. The broadcast examines the challenges of converting vote share into seats without an established organisational presence following a record voter turnout of over 84 percent across 234 constituencies.