Conditions set for historic El Nino this year. This Indian city is at high risk
The development puts Chennai at risk, conjuring memories of the 2015 floods, which devastated large parts of the city, during a similar strong El Nino phase.
A massive warm water wave deep in the Pacific Ocean is signalling trouble for millions as the possibility of a strong El Nino event has become more concrete.
Climate scientists are watching a powerful downwelling Kelvin wave, which is essentially a huge subsurface surge of warm water crossing the equator, that has now reached South America.
This wave is currently suppressing the usual cold water upwelling and setting the stage for what could be a historic El Nino event.
El Nino is part of the larger El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, a natural climate pattern where warmer Pacific waters change global weather.
In simple terms, it often means weaker summer rains across much of India but heavier Northeast Monsoon (NEM) showers in Tamil Nadu and coastal regions of Andhra Pradesh.
Major global forecasters like NOAA and ECMWF have been pointing towards the possibility and now have strong expectations for El Nino emerging by mid-2026, with some models hinting at a rare Super El Nino that could be more intense.
CHENNAI IS AT RISK
For Chennai, one of the major cities in India, the risks are real.
A strong El Nino tends to pump more moisture from a warmer Bay of Bengal straight into the city during the NEM from October to December.
The 2015 floods, which devastated large parts of the metropolitan city, came during a similar strong El Nino phase.
With the city’s flat, low-lying geography, even a moderate amount of extra rain can overwhelm drains when rivers can’t empty fast enough into the sea. In other words, extreme floods are likely.
IMD and international outlooks also suggest a hotter summer and possibly below-normal Southwest Monsoon for much of India, adding to the overall climate stress.
THE NEED TO PREPARE
People in Chennai and nearby regions are sounding alarms and demanding that robust preparation begin now.
Chennai remains vulnerable despite post-2015 improvements. Key waterways like the Cooum River, Adyar River, Otteri Nullah, and stormwater canals still need urgent desilting.
Furthermore, construction debris, especially from projects near the Cooum, must be cleared quickly to restore flow.
It's an apt case of better safe than sorry.
Officials are being asked to accelerate desilting drives, clear encroachments, and widen river mouths before the rains arrive. Citizen groups and opposition voices are already tagging authorities, demanding action at the earliest.
While no one can control Pacific waves thousands of kilometres away, Chennai can control how ready it is when the water comes with a fury.
Early warnings, a functioning drainage system, and restored rivers could make all the difference between a manageable monsoon and another disaster.