Congress-led UDF to dash Pinarayi Vijayan's hat-trick hopes in Kerala: Exit polls

The Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) is likely to dash Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan’s hopes of securing a third consecutive term in Kerala, with exit polls giving the opposition alliance a clear edge over the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF). The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), despite an aggressive campaign, is unlikely to make a major breakthrough, surveys suggest.

According to Matrize, the UDF is likely to secure 70-75 seats, compared to 60-65 for the LDF and 3-5 for the NDA. People's Pulse projected 75-85 seats for the UDF, 55-65 for the LDF and 0-3 for the NDA. Axis My India forecast a comfortable UDF victory with 78-90 seats, while estimating 49-62 seats for the LDF and 0-3 for the NDA.

P-Marq projected 71-79 seats for the UDF, 62-69 for the LDF and 1-4 seats for the NDA. Other parties are likely to get 0-3 seats, per the exit poll. The majority mark is 71. According to poll of exit polls, the UDF is likely to get 77 seats, LDF 60, NDA 2 and 1 for other parties.

Today's Chanakya, however, has predicted a tight contest in Kerala, but has given an edge to the UDF. According to the survey, the UDF is predicted to win 69 seats, followed by 64 for the LDF and seven for the NDA. Other parties may get only 1 seat, the exit poll suggests.

Note: Exit polls are based on surveys conducted among people who have exited poll booths after casting their votes. Exit polls aim to predict the mood among the voters but can get the forecast wrong.

If the exit poll projections prove accurate on May 4, it would deal another major setback to the LDF, which rules only Kerala. For the Congress, it would signal a significant comeback after a decade, building on its improved performance in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.

Kerala, which has 140 Assembly seats, voted in a single phase on April 9. The state saw a turnout of 78.27 per cent, according to the Election Commission.

The southern state witnessed a high-voltage campaign centred on governance, welfare schemes, unemployment, corruption allegations and anti-incumbency sentiments. The UDF campaigned on promises of administrative change and economic revival, while the LDF highlighted welfare delivery and infrastructure expansion under Pinarayi Vijayan’s government.

The BJP attempted to broaden its footprint through aggressive campaigning in urban and coastal constituencies.

The 2026 Assembly election is being closely watched because it follows a historic verdict in the 2021 polls, when the LDF broke Kerala’s long-standing pattern of alternating governments every five years. The LDF won 99 seats with nearly 45.3 per cent vote share, while the UDF was reduced to 41 seats with around 39.4 per cent vote share.

The NDA failed to win a seat despite polling more than 12 per cent of the vote.