BJP to wrest Bengal from Trinamool with 192+ seats, predicts Today's Chanakya
The BJP will wrest control of West Bengal from the ruling TMC after 15 years in a major political shift, predicts Today's Chanakya. According to the survey, the BJP is likely to get 192+ seats, while the TMC may secure 100+ seats.
The winds in West Bengal appear to be shifting. Today’s Chanakya exit poll on Thursday signalled a dramatic change in the state’s political landscape, projecting a clear lead for the BJP with 192+ seats. In contrast, the TMC is estimated to get 100+ seats, while others are likely to get only 2 seats.
If these projections hold, it would mark a major turnaround in West Bengal politics, potentially ending the TMC’s 15-year-old dominance in the state. The numbers point to a strong consolidation of support in favour of the BJP, indicating a decisive shift in voter preference. The halfway mark is 147.
The latest projection marks the fifth exit poll to give the BJP an advantage in West Bengal.
Health warning: Exit poll numbers often get it wrong and must be taken with a pinch of salt.
In the 2021 Assembly election, most exit polls had predicted a close contest between the BJP and the TMC. The final result proved otherwise, with the TMC winning a decisive 215 seats, while the BJP secured 77 and emerged as the principal opposition party.
Exit polls are based on voter surveys conducted after ballots are cast and attempt to capture public sentiment, though their projections do not always match the final outcome.
MOST EXIT POLLS GIVE BJP EDGE
West Bengal voted in two phases on April 23 and 29 amid heavy deployment of central forces and recorded turnouts of above 90 per cent. The BJP framed the high participation as a sign of “poriborton” or change after 15 years of TMC rule.
Several pollsters reflected that trend. Matrize projected 146-161 seats for the BJP and 125-140 for the TMC. P-Marq offered one of the strongest forecasts for the BJP, estimating 150-175 seats, while giving the TMC 118-138.
Chanakya Strategies also predicted a saffron surge, forecasting 150-160 seats for the BJP and 130-140 for the TMC. Poll Diary estimated 142-171 seats for the BJP and 99-127 for the TMC.
However, not all surveys favoured the BJP. People’s Pulse projected a comfortable TMC victory with 177-187 seats, while Janmat Polls forecast 195-205 seats for the ruling party.
JVC predicted the closest contest, giving the BJP 138-159 seats and the TMC 131-152 seats.
Overall, the exit poll landscape suggests the BJP may hold an edge, though the final outcome remains uncertain until the counting happens on May 4.