Vijay's TVK the disruptor-in-chief? Today's Chanakya exit poll predicts 63 seats

Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) has emerged as the disruptor that Tamil Nadu politics did not see coming, with two exit polls suggesting the actor-turned-politician has upended the state’s long-standing two-party dominance and forced a three-cornered contest in his very first electoral outing.

The Today’s Chanakya exit poll projects a strong debut for TVK, estimating around 63 seats, with a margin of 11 seats on either side, and a vote share of about 30 per cent, with a possible variation of 3 per cent. While this places the party behind the DMK-led alliance, it firmly establishes Vijay’s outfit as a major third pole with the ability to reshape electoral equations.

The data also points to a broad social coalition backing TVK. The party commands 29 per cent support among Backward Classes, 27 per cent among Most Backward Classes, and 34 per cent among Scheduled Castes and Christians, indicating it is cutting across caste lines. However, it trails the DMK among Muslim voters, where the ruling bloc retains a clear edge.

A significant driver of this rise appears to be the youth vote. TVK has drawn strong support from first-time voters and those under 30, along with urban voters, students, and the unemployed. The central theme of change has resonated strongly, positioning the party as an alternative to established players.

However, Axis My India, on Wednesday, presented a far more dramatic scenario. Its exit poll projects TVK at 98–120 seats in the 234 -- member Assembly -- numbers that bring it within striking distance of the majority mark of 117 and potentially make it the single largest party.

The survey also estimates TVK’s vote share at around 35 per cent, putting it on par with the DMK-led bloc and far ahead of the AIADMK-BJP alliance. Pollster Pradeep Gupta likened Vijay’s rise to that of M G Ramachandran and N T Ram Rao, both of whom converted mass popularity into political power.

Vijay’s personal appeal is reflected in leadership preferences as well, with the actor-turned-politician running close to Chief Minister M K Stalin as the preferred choice for the top post—an indication of his rapid shift from outsider to contender.

Taken together, the projections - despite differing on scale - point to the same conclusion: TVK is not just cutting into the AIADMK’s base but also challenging the DMK in key segments. It has disrupted Tamil Nadu’s long-standing bipolar politics and established itself as a decisive third force.

If Today’s Chanakya proves accurate, TVK will emerge as a strong power centre. If Axis My India’s projection holds, it could be on the verge of forming the government.

Note: Exit polls are based on surveys conducted among voters who have exited polling booths after casting their votes. They aim to predict voter mood but can get the forecast wrong.

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