Has Vijay secured majority? VCK's conditional backing throws alliance into chaos

TVK chief Vijay appeared on the verge of crossing the majority mark in the fractured Tamil Nadu Assembly after securing support from the Congress, CPI and CPI(M), but fresh uncertainty over VCK backing has once again pushed the government formation battle into suspense.

After securing the backing of key opposition parties, Vijay called on Governor Rajendra Vishwanath Arlekar at the Lok Bhavan in connection with securing an invite from him to form the government. However, Lok Bhavan sources said the oath-taking date and time have not yet been officially announced as signatures from the VCK are still awaited. Sources said Vijay met the Governor with signatures of 116 MLAs and assured Raj Bhavan that efforts were underway to secure the remaining support needed to cross the majority mark.

The numbers remain delicately poised. TVK has 107 MLAs in the 234-member Assembly, while the Congress has extended support with its five MLAs. The CPI and CPI(M), which have two MLAs each, have also backed TVK after internal meetings. This takes the tally to 116 — still two short of the 118 needed for a majority.

In a fresh setback to Vijay’s camp, the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML), which has two MLAs, clarified late Friday that it would remain with the DMK-led alliance and was not extending support to the TVK-led formation. “We are with the DMK only,” party sources said, dealing a blow to TVK’s efforts to comfortably cross the majority mark.

At the same time, uncertainty deepened over the support of the Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK), which has two MLAs and now effectively holds the key to government formation in Tamil Nadu.

Despite public statements of support earlier in the day, sources in Lok Bhavan said formal signatures from the VCK had still not been submitted, which is why Raj Bhavan has held back from officially confirming the swearing-in ceremony.

The delay has coincided with hard bargaining by the VCK, which has now made a major power-sharing demand in return for its support. Sources said the party wants VCK chief Thol Thirumavalavan to be made Deputy Chief Minister in the Vijay-led government. TVK, however, is currently understood to be willing to offer the Urban Affairs portfolio instead.

Sources said the situation turned increasingly tense late Friday evening, with TVK leaders allegedly unable to establish contact with Thirumavalavan for nearly two hours even as the party desperately sought the two crucial signatures needed to secure majority support before the Governor. The developments triggered speculation of tougher bargaining by the VCK leadership at a critical stage of government formation.

CPI(M) has submitted an unconditional letter of support to TVK to enable government formation. The party said the move is aimed at ensuring stability and respecting the mandate of the 2026 Assembly elections.

The sudden consolidation around Vijay comes barely a day after the Governor again declined to invite the TVK chief to form the government, saying the party had failed to demonstrate majority support. The rejection triggered a political storm, with opposition parties accusing the BJP-led Centre of attempting to engineer “Governor’s Rule through the back door”.

Behind the scenes on Friday, frantic negotiations unfolded across Chennai as Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge personally spoke to Thirumavalavan to secure support for the TVK-led formation.

Soon after, the CPI Working Committee and CPI(M)’s state leadership also extended support to Vijay, dramatically changing the arithmetic in the Assembly and potentially ending the uncertainty over who forms the next government.

The support, however, did not come without sharp warnings and public messaging directed at Vijay and his inner circle.

In a strongly worded statement, VCK leader Sinthanai Selvan accused the BJP of attempting to use the Governor’s office to destabilise Tamil Nadu politics and warned that democratic norms were under threat.

At the same time, he openly criticised Vijay’s handling of the post-poll situation, questioning why the TVK chief had not personally reached out to alliance partners immediately after the results.

“How are we to understand sending a WhatsApp letter asking for support and then saying ‘respond’?” Selvan asked, while also accusing some “second-rung leaders” around Vijay of isolating him and pushing him towards political confrontation.

The VCK leader also took aim at what he described as the revival of “resort politics” in Tamil Nadu, referring to reports that TVK legislators had been moved to a secure location amid fears of poaching and instability.

Despite the criticism, the larger concern among Congress, Left parties and VCK appeared to be preventing what they described as a possible constitutional overreach by the Governor.

Karnataka minister Priyank Kharge also entered the debate on Friday, backing a floor test for Vijay and questioning the Governor’s stance.

“It is the responsibility of the Governor to follow due constitutional process. If the largest party claims to have the numbers, they should be allowed to prove it on the floor of the House — not in the Governor’s residence, but in the legislature itself,” Kharge said.

He also cited earlier precedents in Maharashtra and Karnataka where governments were sworn in before proving majority on the Assembly floor.

But even as Vijay appeared close to securing power earlier in the day, the IUML’s refusal to back TVK, the absence of crucial signatures, and the VCK’s aggressive last-minute bargaining ensured political uncertainty deepened late into Friday night.

WHAT’S HAPPENING IN TAMIL NADU

The controversy began after the fractured verdict on May 4 produced no outright majority. TVK emerged as the single largest party with 108 seats, while the DMK-led alliance fell short of retaining power.

On Thursday, Vijay met the Governor for the second time in 24 hours, but Lok Bhavan later issued a statement saying the “requisite majority support” needed to form the government had not been established.

That decision triggered protests by TVK cadres outside the Raj Bhavan, while Congress announced statewide demonstrations against both the Governor and the BJP-led Centre.

The Congress and Left parties argued that constitutional convention required the single largest party to be invited first and given time to prove majority on the floor of the House.

CPI(M) general secretary MA Baby had earlier cited the 1996 precedent when former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee was invited to form the government despite lacking a majority at the outset.

Meanwhile, the BJP maintained that the Governor was acting strictly within constitutional norms.

BJP spokesperson Narayanan Tirupathy said the Governor would “go by the Constitution and the rule book”, adding that a stable government could be formed if supporting parties formally backed Vijay.

Even as support lines hardened, DMK sources indicated outgoing Chief Minister MK Stalin had urged alliance partners to remain within the Secular Progressive Alliance, signalling that the battle for political loyalties may not yet be fully over, as per a report by news agency PTI.

With support equations shifting rapidly and crucial alliance partners still bargaining or withholding signatures, uncertainty now hangs over whether Vijay will be able to take oath as Tamil Nadu Chief Minister on Saturday as expected.