Assembly elections: Congress sees silver lining in drubbing of regional parties?
As Congress celebrated its Kerala victory, Rahul Gandhi spoke to Mamata Banerjee and MK Stalin after their electoral setbacks. The results sharpened the party's distrust of regional allies while reopening debates over opposition strategy and future alliances.
As news of Rahul Gandhi speaking to TMC supremo Mamata Banerjee and DMK chief MK Stalin poured in after the results, the Congress headquarters was abuzz with celebrations over its Kerala victory.
The two regional satraps, Mamata and Stalin, had suffered a crushing defeat. However, Congress MP from Uttar Pradesh and poet Imran Pratapgarhi put it bluntly, “We are sad for Tamil Nadu where we were in alliance, but why should we mourn the loss of West Bengal? We were not the chief opposition party there. We would rather celebrate the victory of Kerala today,” he said amid the sound of rolling drums.
EARLY SIGNALS FROM WEST BENGAL
A day before the assembly election results were declared, India Today spoke to a veteran Congress leader from West Bengal, who said plainly that the TMC was set to lose. “There is a lot of anti-incumbency. TMC has been involved in corruption, and people are tired of its local strongmen. Its politics of terror and intimidation must end. Only when Mamata goes and the BJP comes will there be hope for the Congress in the future,” he said, requesting anonymity.
Congress’s Long-Standing Distrust of TMC
The leader’s reaction was not surprising. The Congress has long been wary of the TMC and chose to contest almost all assembly seats this time. It believes it has a better chance against the BJP, given their stark ideological differences, than against regional outfits.
A “frenemy” for years, the Congress feels the TMC could never be relied upon. Not long ago, its leaders had taken potshots at Rahul Gandhi, mocking his “vote chori” campaign. Now, Congress leaders say, the situation has come full circle.
“Today, the TMC is crying foul over the entire SIR exercise. However, when Rahul Gandhi was holding press conferences over alleged fraud in Haryana, Karnataka, and Maharashtra assembly elections, questioning the Election Commission and accusing the ruling BJP of stealing votes, there were no takers,” a Congress leader said.
THE ‘VOTE CHORI’ PITCH
As Leader of Opposition, Rahul Gandhi hosted a dinner for opposition leaders at his Sunehri Bagh residence. However, very few leaders, including SP chief Akhilesh Yadav, agreed with his pitch.
Rahul Gandhi presented an extensive PowerPoint explaining the “vote chori” narrative and its alleged modus operandi. “As RG explained, Tejashwi Yadav and Abhishek Banerjee were not convinced. Months later, Tejashwi lost the Bihar assembly elections, and the West Bengal results seem to reinforce that. Had Abhishek Banerjee taken RG more seriously, things might have been different,” a leader privy to the meeting told India Today.
RAHUL GANDHI’S CLAIM OF VINDICATION
After the results, Rahul Gandhi backed Mamata Banerjee’s allegation that the BJP rigged nearly 100 seats in West Bengal. In a post on X, he wrote:
“Assam and Bengal are clear cases of elections being stolen by the BJP with the support of the EC. We agree with Mamata ji. More than 100 seats were stolen in Bengal. We have seen this playbook before: Madhya Pradesh, Haryana, Maharashtra, Lok Sabha 2024, etc.”
Rahul Gandhi also pointed to past assembly elections where the Congress claims it bore the brunt in direct contests with the BJP.
ALLIANCE POLITICS AND BRINKMANSHIP
A senior Congress leader, speaking on condition of anonymity, described the developments as political brinkmanship, “Look at the chronology. Before the Lok Sabha polls, Nitish Kumar walked out of the INDIA alliance. Mamata Banerjee opposed him being made convenor, so he left and joined the BJP. Then there were calls from leaders like Sharad Pawar to make her the INDIA alliance leader instead of Rahul Gandhi, and the TMC gave wind to it. Soon after, the TMC opted out of the INDIA alliance before the assembly elections. Now, all that seems to have been settled with its defeat.”
TAMIL NADU: A MISSED OPPORTUNITY?
Within Congress, there is growing chatter over whether the party “missed the bus” in Tamil Nadu by not aligning with Vijay’s TVK at the right time.
“The stage was set. There were reports of a rift with its ally DMK, and several Congress leaders were demanding a power-sharing agreement. Talks with Vijay were on, but things didn’t work out at the last moment, and Congress faced resistance from within,” a senior leader told India Today.
Despite public posturing in support of the DMK, the situation remains fluid. With Rahul Gandhi sharing a cordial relationship with Vijay, future political equations could turn out differently.
LOOKING AHEAD: 2029 IN FOCUS
Congress leaders see a silver lining in the current results. The role of youth voters in unseating incumbent governments in West Bengal and Tamil Nadu has strengthened their belief that they will be an important voice in the 2029 Lok Sabha elections, which is likely to turn into a direct contest between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Rahul Gandhi.
For the Congress, despite setbacks involving regional players, the broader political narrative may still offer an opportunity to recalibrate and consolidate.