In Dacca, people bet on prospects of presidential election being held at all

In Dacca, the capital of Bangladesh, the latest parlour game is to take out bets on the prospects of the presidential election being held at all. A month ago, Daccaites were gambling just on the date - September 21.Unlike in early June, when no political party other than the ruling Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) evinced any interest in participation in the polls, many others have now joined the fray. Apart from Acting President Abdus Sattar, who was the first to announce his decision to contest as the BNP candidate, two others are in the race now: Khan A. Sabur, the 70-year-old president of the Bangladesh Muslim League, and General (retired) Wasiuddin, the scion of one of the oldest Bangladesh aristocracies.Now even a fourth candidate, and maybe the most viable at that, is about to enter the arena: Kamal Hossain, the 45-year-old former foreign minister and member of the Bangladesh Awami League presidium, may shortly announce his decision to contest the election, thus upsetting the smug optimism in BNP ranks that Sattar might after all get a walk-over.The BNP feels hoisted on its own petard for having advanced the date of the election to September 21 from November 27, the outermost limit permitted by the constitution. Initially it did so in a hurry to keep Hasina Wajed, president of the Awami League, out of the race. Wajed attains the statutory age of 35 for seeking election as president in the last week of October.Changing Scenario: However, the general scene in Bangladesh during the past few weeks reflects a distinct shift away from the BNP and in favour of the Awami League, or any candidate supported by the League.The section of the BNP leadership which supports Sattar's candidacy made a move last fortnight to postpone the election till the middle of November, hoping that the new autumn harvest might soften the mood of the people. Holiday, the influential Dacca weekly, recently reported BNP overtures to other parties on this line.However, the real fear of the BNP's effective leadership is caused by Sattar's losing popularity not only among the people but within his own party. It is widely known now that the nomination of Sattar was not approved by the district units of the party.Sattar: ailingThe discontent was so intense that the leadership had to clear Sattar's nomination only through an extended committee meeting of the party and not through the national council. The extended committee comprises just the party MPs with the addition of two representatives of each of the party's front organisations.Diplomats shuttling between Delhi and Dacca firmly aver that the Dacca regime will take few chances with regard to Sattar's election. "Heads they win, tails they don't lose." said a western diplomat, an old Dacca hand, during his brief stop-over in Delhi last fortnight. And naturally, in Dacca tea shops, odds are almost even for those who like to lay a bet on the election ever talcing place.Visible Difference:The deep fissures within the BNP came to the fore early last month when the Bangladesh Jativo Sangshad (parliament) voted for the Sixth Constitution Amendment Bill to empower Sattar to contest as president.The amendment became necessary because of a technical loophole in the constitution; the office of the vice-president, or even that of the acting president, was not included in the exemption list from "offices of profit", and anyone holding such an office was debarred from the presidential race.The opposition parties had boycotted the parliament discussion on the ground that the amendment was aimed only at facilitating the nomination of Sattar. But, significantly, about 25 legislators of the BNP, owing allegiance to Nural Islam Shishu, the agriculture minister who had been fired by Sattar recently (see India Today, July 1-15), also decided to stay away from voting. In a House of 300, the ruling party needed a minimum of 221 votes to pass the amendment. In the face of the Shishu group's opposition, there was a danger of the amendment failing to attract necessary support.According to a diplomatic source, a message was sent out from Dacca cantonment to each of the dissident BNP legislators on the morning of July 9, the day of the voting, asking them to be present in parliament and to vote for the amendment. In the cases of some hard-core members, armed guards were actually sent. Gripped with panic, the BNP members voted en bloc for the amendment which secured 249 votes.Hossain: viableShishu, the kingpin of the dissidents, got so terrorised himself that within hours he circulated a written statement extending his "unequivocal" support to Sattar. Shishu's ginger group is lying low for the time being, but Sattar is finding it hard to build up an alternative support base in the districts.The main support of Sattar, a doddering man who finds it difficult to stand up, is the suave parliamentarian and Prime Minister, Shah Azizur Rahman. And the secret of Rahman's strength is his excellent equation with Lieutenant-General H.M. Ershad, chief of staff of the Bangladesh Army.According to latest reports received in Delhi, Rahman is now keen on another amendment to the constitution by which the post of the vice-president can be made an elective one, with the rider that he automatically succeeds the president in the event of the latter's inability to continue in power. Rahman himself is reportedly keen on contesting as the vice-president. The move has the strong backing of Ershad.Lessened Infighting: What threatens to throw a spanner in the works of the Ershad-Rahman combine is the possibility of the Awami League at last putting up a candidate. A representative body of the League, consisting of nearly a thousand delegates, met in Dacca between June 6 and June 9 when most of them expressed the feeling that the party should not keep itself out of the contest. Surprisingly, the infighting and leadership tussle within the League seems to have been smoothed out to a considerable extent, thanks to Wajed's passionate, nonpartisan and sincere pleadings. The various groups within the party are now reconciled to Hossain's candidacy.In the likely event of a direct fight between Sattar and Hossain, the BNP cannot but fall back on the charisma of Ziaur Rahman, the assassinated president. In fact, the BNP election strategy is being increasingly geared to this. A big chunk of Chittagong city, where the president was killed, is being renamed Zianagar. The Kurmitolla Airport in Dacca will be called Zia Airport.But the Awami League too has its martyr in Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, the "Bangabandhu" who was assassinated by politically-backed elements of the army in 1975. As Wajed, his daughter, said in a recent interview: "Politics of murder only brings forth more murders."Published By: AtMigration Published On: Nov 14, 2013 11:56 IST--- ENDS ---

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In Dacca, people bet on prospects of presidential election being held at all

In Dacca, the capital of Bangladesh, the latest parlour game is to take out bets on the prospects of the presidential election being held at all. A month ago, Daccaites were gambling just on the date - September 21.

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