El Nino confirmed, alert sounded by Australia: Should India be worried?
The Pacific Ocean is changing and the shift that could reshape India's weather is closer than we realise. Here's when a potentially historic El Nino could hit.
Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), one of the world’s most closely watched authorities on Pacific Ocean climate, has provided the first definite projection of when the predicted intense El Nino will arrive, and it's not far away.
Just a day after the projection was announced, India's Union Agriculture and Farmers Welfare Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan is set to hold a review meeting on agriculture-related issues, including the possible impact of El Nino.
El Nino, the periodic warming of the Pacific that disrupts weather patterns across Asia, is on its way back, and could formally arrive as early as June 2026.
The projected arrival of El Nino does not sit well for India, where a delayed monsoon is already keeping millions in the grip of extreme heat and making farmers wait longer than they can afford.
OCEAN'S WARNING TO US
El Nino is not a storm or a season, but a gradual shift with cascading effects for millions. When the surface waters of the central and eastern tropical Pacific warm beyond a certain threshold, it tilts the entire system of winds and rainfall that governs weather from Australia to India to the Americas.
Then come the consequences.
The Pacific’s previous La Nina phase, which tends to bring good rains to India, ended in February 2026.
By May, the tropical Pacific moved into a neutral state. And now, a large reservoir of heat is now building beneath the ocean surface and is expected to migrate upward over coming months.
Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) forecasts indicate a distinct pattern of abnormally warm water forming in the central and eastern tropical Pacific by June 2026, the specific pattern that traditionally marks El Nino’s onset.
IS EL NINO FORECAST ACCURATE?
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has put the probability of El Nino emerging between May and July 2026 at 82%, with a 96% chance it persists through the end of the year.
BOM and its international partners place the likelihood of a moderate to strong event at between 61–80%, though the Australian weather department cautions that Pacific event strength does not reliably predict how hard any particular region will be hit.
“After a period of neutral conditions at the start of the year, climate models are now strongly aligned,” said Wilfran Moufouma Okia, Chief of Climate Prediction at the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO). “There is high confidence in the onset of El Nio, followed by further intensification in the months that follow.”
SHOULD INDIA BE WORRIED ABOUT EL NINO?
India’s southwest monsoon delivers nearly 70% of the country’s annual rainfall between June and September, and around 60% of India’s farmers grow their summer crops entirely on those rains.
But in most El Nino years, the monsoon’s second half weakens, leaving fields short of water precisely when standing crops need it most.
Apart from agriculture, 2026 has been an extremely hot year, with heatwaves sweeping vast regions of the country, even spilling into the nights, sustaining high temperatures for almost the entire 24 hours. With El Nino, India's monsoon is expected to be hit, taking away any prospect of relief for millions.
IMD’s own long-range forecast, issued in April, has warned that the 2026 monsoon is likely to be below normal, meaning farmers are expected to be hit hard.
A major weather authority has warned us about the few weeks we have to prepare for what's ahead.
El Nino is almost here.
Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), one of the world’s most closely watched authorities on Pacific Ocean climate, has provided the first definite projection of when the predicted intense El Nino will arrive, and it's not far away.
Just a day after the projection was announced, India's Union Agriculture and Farmers Welfare Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan is set to hold a review meeting on agriculture-related issues, including the possible impact of El Nino.
El Nino, the periodic warming of the Pacific that disrupts weather patterns across Asia, is on its way back, and could formally arrive as early as June 2026.
The projected arrival of El Nino does not sit well for India, where a delayed monsoon is already keeping millions in the grip of extreme heat and making farmers wait longer than they can afford.
OCEAN'S WARNING TO US
El Nino is not a storm or a season, but a gradual shift with cascading effects for millions. When the surface waters of the central and eastern tropical Pacific warm beyond a certain threshold, it tilts the entire system of winds and rainfall that governs weather from Australia to India to the Americas.
Then come the consequences.
The Pacific’s previous La Nina phase, which tends to bring good rains to India, ended in February 2026.
By May, the tropical Pacific moved into a neutral state. And now, a large reservoir of heat is now building beneath the ocean surface and is expected to migrate upward over coming months.
Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) forecasts indicate a distinct pattern of abnormally warm water forming in the central and eastern tropical Pacific by June 2026, the specific pattern that traditionally marks El Nino’s onset.
IS EL NINO FORECAST ACCURATE?
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has put the probability of El Nino emerging between May and July 2026 at 82%, with a 96% chance it persists through the end of the year.
BOM and its international partners place the likelihood of a moderate to strong event at between 61–80%, though the Australian weather department cautions that Pacific event strength does not reliably predict how hard any particular region will be hit.
“After a period of neutral conditions at the start of the year, climate models are now strongly aligned,” said Wilfran Moufouma Okia, Chief of Climate Prediction at the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO). “There is high confidence in the onset of El Nio, followed by further intensification in the months that follow.”
SHOULD INDIA BE WORRIED ABOUT EL NINO?
India’s southwest monsoon delivers nearly 70% of the country’s annual rainfall between June and September, and around 60% of India’s farmers grow their summer crops entirely on those rains.
But in most El Nino years, the monsoon’s second half weakens, leaving fields short of water precisely when standing crops need it most.
Apart from agriculture, 2026 has been an extremely hot year, with heatwaves sweeping vast regions of the country, even spilling into the nights, sustaining high temperatures for almost the entire 24 hours. With El Nino, India's monsoon is expected to be hit, taking away any prospect of relief for millions.
IMD’s own long-range forecast, issued in April, has warned that the 2026 monsoon is likely to be below normal, meaning farmers are expected to be hit hard.
A major weather authority has warned us about the few weeks we have to prepare for what's ahead.
El Nino is almost here.
