Super El Niño | A warming warning
Forecasters warn of a Super El Niño that could have major consequences for India
El Nino, a periodic warming of surface waters in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, is among the most influential climate phenomena affecting weather patterns across the globe. Occurring every two to seven years, the event weakens trade winds and alters atmospheric circulation, often disrupting rainfall patterns in Asia, the Americas and Australia.
The term El Nino, Spanish for Little Boy or Christ Child, was coined by South American fishermen in the 1600s because the warming typically peaks around Christmas. Scientists say the phenomenon develops when winds that normally push warm Pacific waters toward Asia weaken or reverse, allowing warm water to drift back toward the Americas.
For India, El Nino carries major implications because it tends to weaken the southwest monsoon, the lifeline of the country’s agriculture-dependent economy. Reduced rainfall during El Nino years can trigger droughts, lower crop output and increase pressure on food prices. Historically, India has experienced below-average rainfall in many El Niño years, including 2009, when rainfall dropped to just 78.2 per cent of the long-period average, the lowest in 37 years.
The India Meteorological Department has already forecast below-normal monsoon rainfall at 92 per cent of the long-period average for 2026, while several global climate models suggest a strong El Niño may emerge by mid-year. Experts warn that the event could disrupt rainfall distribution across India, although some southern coastal regions such as Tamil Nadu may receive heavier showers.
Forecasters warn of a Super El Niño that could have major consequences for India
Despite a rise in production in recent years, India still depends on fertiliser imports to meet its demand.
As North India reels under brutal heatwave conditions, all eyes are now on a weather system gathering strength far to the South.
India's southwest monsoon, which delivers nearly 70% of the country's annual rainfall between June and September, is the backbone of its agriculture and water supply. And El Nino, historically, has been its enemy.
Forecasters say a strong El Nino is likely to return by late 2026, and India's weather office is already warning of a below-normal monsoon for hundreds of millions of farmers.
The latest spell marks one of the most widespread and severe heat episodes of the season so far, with dry continental winds and intense solar heating combining to rapidly push temperatures high.
In a country where weather and welfare are so closely linked, this monsoon season carries heavy weight for India's 1.4 billion people.
The Indian Meteorological Department has issued heatwave warnings for Delhi and several states on May 17, even as heavy rain is forecast across the northeast and south.
Around 60% of Indian farmers are entirely dependent on monsoon rainfall for the kharif crop season, making the stakes for this year’s rains exceptionally high.
The decision comes as authorities try to prevent a rise in domestic sugar prices at a time when food inflation remains politically and economically sensitive for Indian households.
The development puts Chennai at risk, conjuring memories of the 2015 floods, which devastated large parts of the city, during a similar strong El Nino phase.
With meteorological agencies already forecasting the return of El Nino by year's end, and some even predicting a super El Nino expected to hit soon, the findings appear timely.
A Super El Nino is a rare, extreme version of the Pacific Ocean warming cycle, and scientists warn one may be forming right now. With India's monsoon already forecast to be below normal, here is what this climate event means and why it matters to every Indian.
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The BMC has announced a 10 per cent water cut in Mumbai from May 15 after a pre-monsoon review. The move follows low lake levels and concerns that an El Niño-linked weak monsoon could delay relief.
Heat waves have hit 11 states. Banda, in UP, touched 47.4°C. And forecasters say a possible Super El Nino could stretch the heat through 2026.
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On this Special Report, the focus is on the diverse weather patterns across India and the globe as the world counts down to 2026. The reporter highlights the sharp contrasts, stating, 'Delhi NCR... it's been zero visibility conditions for the past few days now.' The programme details the hazardous air quality in the national capital, snowfall in Jammu and Kashmir, and humidity in Mumbai and Chennai. Globally, the report covers the harsh winter in New York, heavy rains in Europe, and summer warmth in Sydney. The broadcast also notes that while Tokyo expects clear skies, London and Madrid are facing wet spells. The reporter concludes with a look at Australia's summer Christmas, marking a warm end to the global weather snapshot.
Schmidt predicts that 2024 is likely to be even hotter due to the anticipated El Nino event.
With El Nino ready to strike the Pacific Ocean this year, we spoke to the India Meteorological Department to dive deep into what India must brace for ahead of this atmospheric phenomenon’s arrival. Watch this video to find out how El-Nino might impact you.
Will India have a below average monsoon? There’s a 90% likelihood of an El Nino developing during June-September. El Nino has resulted in below-average rainfall in the past resulting in severe drought that destroyed crops. How does El Nino affect India's monsoon? Watch to know more.
One day it's raining, another day you witness scorching heat. Are you also confused about weather changes? Well, it's El Nino. It has the potential to disrupt weather patterns around the world. Watch to find out more about it.
El Nino has been known to bring long droughts to countries around the Pacific Ocean - from Peru to Indonesia and Australia.