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El Nino

El Nino, a periodic warming of surface waters in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, is among the most influential climate phenomena affecting weather patterns across the globe. Occurring every two to seven years, the event weakens trade winds and alters atmospheric circulation, often disrupting rainfall patterns in Asia, the Americas and Australia.

The term El Nino, Spanish for Little Boy or Christ Child, was coined by South American fishermen in the 1600s because the warming typically peaks around Christmas. Scientists say the phenomenon develops when winds that normally push warm Pacific waters toward Asia weaken or reverse, allowing warm water to drift back toward the Americas.

For India, El Nino carries major implications because it tends to weaken the southwest monsoon, the lifeline of the country’s agriculture-dependent economy. Reduced rainfall during El Nino years can trigger droughts, lower crop output and increase pressure on food prices. Historically, India has experienced below-average rainfall in many El Niño years, including 2009, when rainfall dropped to just 78.2 per cent of the long-period average, the lowest in 37 years.

The India Meteorological Department has already forecast below-normal monsoon rainfall at 92 per cent of the long-period average for 2026, while several global climate models suggest a strong El Niño may emerge by mid-year. Experts warn that the event could disrupt rainfall distribution across India, although some southern coastal regions such as Tamil Nadu may receive heavier showers.

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