Vijay's reach to the majority mark leaves DMK friendless
Vijay's TVK had defeated the ruling MK Stalin-led DMK in the Assembly election. Vijay didn't just weaken the DMK by snatching seats from it in direct contests, his path to the chief minister's office was made possible by the Dravida party's allies. The DMK is now left without its longtime friends.
There are no permanent friends or foes in politics is a cliche. Rather, politics is the art of making your enemy's friends your friends. That's what actor-politician Vijay has displayed in the last few days amid the hectic parleys among all parties to form the next government after the Tamil Nadu polls, which delivered a fractured mandate. Now, Vijay is all set to be crowned the chief minister of Tamil Nadu. A stunning record for a debutant politician.
Vijay's Tamilaga Vetri Khazagham or TVK successfully reached the majority mark of 118 in the 234-member Assembly on Saturday. While the TVK emerged as the single-biggest party with 107 MLAs, it fell short of the 118 halfway mark. That he will be the next chief minister is all thanks to the old allies of the DMK, which was hurt the most by the TVK in the Assembly election.
The DMK's alliance partners, the Congress, VCK, Indian Union Muslim League (IUML), and the left parties – CPI, and the CPI(M) – have supported Vijay's claim to the CM's post. The VCK and the IUML, after giving mixed signals about joining Vijay, finally announced support for Vijay on Saturday. So, Vijay has not only defeated the DMK in the elections but has also made it friendless in Tamil Nadu.
TVK chief Vijay met Governor Rajdendra Arlekar on Friday, the third time since the results were declared on May 4, to stake a claim for the government formation. In the earlier two meetings, the Governor sent Vijay back and asked him to return once he had the majority of MLAs supporting him. Now, Vijay has the numbers.
It was Vijay's father, SA Chandrasekhar, who first approached the Congress to join Vijay for a coalition government. "Ally with Vijay, and he will give you the power you lost," said Chandrasekhar after the results were announced.
CONGRESS WAS THE FIRST TO JUMP SHIP IN TAMIL NADU
The Congress party high command, led by AICC President Mallikarjun Kharge, Leader of Opposition Rahul Gandhi, and Senior Congress leader KC Venugopal, in New Delhi, held a meeting and informed the party's Tamil Nadu unit to decide in accordance with the situation on the ground.
The Congress, which won five seats in Tamil Nadu, left behind the DMK and supported Vijay on May 6. By allying with Vijay's party, the Congress claimed that it aimed to prevent "communal forces" (a reference to the BJP and its proxies) from gaining power in the state.
Even with the support of Congress MLAs, Vijay's TVK still could not reach the majority mark, and it needed five more MLAs to achieve the simple majority. The Congress assured Vijay of bringing the VCK, CPI, and the CPI(M) with it for the coalition government.
Now with Congress's five MLAs, VCK, IUML, CPI, and CPI(M)'s two seats each, Vijay's TVK will have 121 MLAs in the house and can easily cross the majority mark.
WHY DMK'S ALLIES LEFT IT AMID BUZZ OF TALKS WITH AIADMK
After the Congress broke the alliance with the DMK and joined the TVK, the grand old Dravidian party reportedly went on to prevent Vijay from forming the government. There was a reported buzz that talks were being held between the DMK and the AIADMK on a coalition in Tamil Nadu.
The talks with the AIADMK is believed to have pushed the DMK allies to switch over to the TVK-Congress camp.
"We had to leave the DMK as they wanted the AIADMK to form a government in Tamil Nadu. Backing AIADMK was unacceptable for us," CPI(M)'s General Secretary, MA Baby, told India Today TV on Friday. He said the DMK wanted the CPI(M) to support its alliance with the AIADMK.
Tamil Nadu Congress MP Manickam Tagore on Friday criticised the AIADMK and the DMK for this rumoured tie-up. "Two Dravidian parties. Lifelong enemies. Became one overnight. Not for Tamil Nadu. Not for secularism. To stop one single man, Vijay," Tagore said.
As the Congress promised, the Left parties switched over.
However, with the DMK now being friendless, it is very unlikely that there are chances of the Dravida parties forming a government in Tamil Nadu.
HOW DMK'S OLD ALLIES HAVE LEFT IT FRIENDLESS NOW
The DMK tied up with the Congress and a host of smaller parties to contest the Assembly election. On the other side, the AIADMK and the BJP also formed a pre-poll alliance with several other parties. Tamil Nadu has several smaller parties with pockets of loyal supporters.
The Congress and the DMK's alliance are decades old. For the Congress's limited influence in Tamil Nadu, DMK is the reason. In 1967, when the DMK came to power for the first time, it was the Congress that it defeated. In 1971, the DMK and the Congress formed a coalition for the first time for the general election.
But a year later, the Congress, led by Indira Gandhi, decided to leave the DMK and ally with the newly formed party of MG Ramachandran (MGR)-led AIADMK. The Congress-AIADMK managed to sweep the 1977 state election. This alliance broke after the MGR refused to support Indira’s attempt to return to the Lok Sabha through parliamentary bypolls in Thanjavur.
From the 1980s to 2004, Congress formed and broke alliances with both the Dravidian parties. It was in 2004 that the DMK and the Congress formation became concrete. The DMK was an integral part of the UPA government led by former Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh.
In 2013, the DMK broke ties with the Congress over the Sri Lankan Tamils issue. The parties once again resumed ties in 2016 after suffering electorally from Jayalalithaa's landslide victory in state polls.
The CPI and CPI(M) have been long-time allies of the DMK since the 1970s, though the Left parties have periodically formed and dissolved alliances with the Dravidian party over the decades. The VCK joined the alliance with the DMK for the first time in 2001 for the Assembly elections.
WHY DMK IS ALLEGING BETRAYAL BY THE CONGRESS
That anger of an ally of decades deserting it was visible. DMK leaders called the Congress a "backstabber".
On Thursday, the DMK held a crucial meeting on Thursday and passed four major resolutions. The DMK accused the Congress of "betrayal" and "backstabbing", saying the party had "not changed its old character". "What the BJP did to other states, Congress did to the DMK in Tamil Nadu," one of the resolutions from the DMK meeting said.
After the meeting, the DMK leader, TKS Elangovan, declared that the "INDIA bloc (the national alliance of the opposition parties) is gone."
DMK Treasurer TR Baalu said that MK Stalin had consistently supported Rahul Gandhi politically and personally. "Stalin had proposed Rahul Gandhi as the prime ministerial candidate during the 2019 Lok Sabha elections at a time when even the Congress leadership was hesitant to officially project him," he added.
DMK MP Kanimozhi has also written to Om Birla, the Speaker of the Lok Sabha, requesting that the seating arrangement of the DMK and Congress members be changed from their current positions.
The anger also reached the ground, and there have been reports of violent clashes and intense political friction between the DMK and the Congress workers in Tamil Nadu following the collapse of their alliance, and reports of Congress.
For decades, the DMK built its dominance not just through electoral strength, but also through its ability to hold together a broad coalition of ideological allies and regional parties. But Vijay's rise has disrupted that ecosystem in a matter of days.
By pulling away Congress, the Left parties, and the VCK, Vijay's TVK has not only emerged as the new centre of power in Tamil Nadu politics but has also left the DMK politically isolated with no major friends to rely on at a crucial moment. The bigger message is that Tamil Nadu might be witnessing the collapse of its old alliance structure and the rise of a new political order centred around Vijay.