Pollsters have a Mamata challenge in Bengal. Will they prove her wrong this time?

The predictions of the majority of the pollsters, which have given a clear edge to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in a high-stakes and tightly contested Bengal election, have worried a section of liberals who have long considered Bengal a secular fortress that could not be breached by the fierce electoral machinery of the national party. However, the forecasters, in Bengal, still have a mammoth challenge to overcome—and that challenge comes from none other than Mamata Banerjee, who has a history of proving poll predictions wrong.

Before moving on to how many times the West Bengal Chief Minister and the Trinamool Congress supremo defied poll predictions, let us first look at what the majority of the pollsters forecasted about the May 4 results.

SOME EXIT POLLS GAVE BJP EDGE OVER TMC IN BENGAL

Predicting the outcome, at least five pollsters said that the BJP is in the driver's seat in the 2026 West Bengal assembly polls.

Among them, Today’s Chanakya handed the BJP a decisive margin with a staggering 192+ seats against the Trinamool Congress's 100+ seats.

The pollster also predicted a huge swing in votes in favour of the BJP. As per their estimates, the BJP is likely to secure 48% of the total votes polled against the Trinamool's 38%. If the numbers stand, then the BJP might witness an eight per cent surge in total votes in favour of them, compared to what they got in the 2021 assembly elections.

P-Marq, another pollster, said that the BJP was projected to secure between 150 and 175 seats against the Trinamool's 118 to 138 seats. Matrize predicted that the BJP was expected to bag 146–161 seats against the TMC's 125–140 seats.

Pollsters like Praja Poll and Poll Diary estimated that the BJP was likely to secure 178-208 and 142–171 seats, respectively, against the TMC's 85–110 seats, and 99–127 seats, respectively.

Amid worries, two pollsters, People’s Pulse and Janmat Polls, predicted a thumping majority for the incumbent Trinamool Congress. As per People’s Pulse, Mamata Banerjee is all set to be in power for the fourth consecutive time with 177–187 seats. Janmat, on the other hand, said that the TMC might cross the 200 mark for a third straight time.

Axis My India, led by Pradip Gupta, however, refused to predict anything for West Bengal, citing the silence among voters that prevented his organisation from getting genuine feedback.

MAMATA BANERJEE'S TRACK RECORD OF PROVING POLLSTERS WRONG

It all started in the 2016 assembly election, where Trinamool Congress faced off with the Left-Congress alliance.

A local television channel named ABP Ananda, in its post-poll survey, indicated a tight contest between the TMC and the Left-Congress alliance. Although it predicted a majority for the Trinamool Congress with 163 seats (just 15 more than the magic figure of 148) against the Left-Congress alliance's 126, it said that uncertainties remained in 30 seats and that could be a game-changer in the state.

The Times Now C-Voter survey predicted that the Trinamool Congress would emerge victorious with 167 as opposed to the Left-Cong alliance's 110.

As the results were declared, the Trinamool Congress swept the election with more seats than these pollsters had predicted. For the first time, it crossed the 200 mark in the state. Its final tally stood at 211 seats.

And the trend of defying exit polls continued for Mamata Banerjee. Again and again.

In 2021, when the state was witnessing a strong undercurrent against the 10-year-long TMC rule and a pro-BJP sentiment, the majority of the pollsters indicated a strong contest between the two, with some of them giving an edge to the BJP.

For instance, the India Today-Axis My India survey predicted a close contest, with the Trinamool Congress expected to get 130–156 seats against the BJP's 134-160. The Republic-CNX survey predicted an edge for the BJP with 138-148 seats against the Trinamool Congress’s 128–138 seats. Pollsters like Republic-Jan Ki Baat, India TV-PP and India News-JKB predicted a clear mandate in favour of the BJP.

Ahead of the counting, poll strategist turned politician Prashant Kishor, who was working with the TMC in that assembly election, said in an India Today TV interview that the BJP would not cross 100 seats. His words became true as the TMC once again swept the election with its highest ever tally of 215 against the BJP’s 77.

Gupta of My Axis later explained that the Covid-19 lockdown prevented from proper collection of data.

For Mamata and her TMC, the defiance peaked in the 2024 General elections.

The majority of the pollsters, for the first time, predicted a clear mandate in favour of the BJP. Some of them even cited a Hindu vote consolidation that would outplay the TMC in the election.

However, as the result suggested, the TMC won 29 seats, increasing its tally in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, and the BJP had to be satisfied with just 12 seats, six less than what they won in 2019.

HOW MANY SEATS WILL TMC WIN IN 2026? 226, SAID MAMATA BANERJEE

On April 30, Mamata Banerjee uploaded a video on her X account, saying that the Trinamool Congress would win at least 226 seats and could even reach the 230 mark.

She dismissed the exit poll predictions, alleging that those were done under the BJP’s pressure.

"The exact same pattern unfolded in 2016, and it has repeated itself in 2021. Time and again, the exit polls they have showcased have been entirely skewed in favour of the BJP,” she said.

Derek O’Brien, Saket Gokhale, and Kunal Ghosh and several other TMC leaders rejected the poll predictions, with O'Brien questioning the authenticity of the pollsters.

"Credibility of Exit Polls? Bengal Polls 2021. How off the mark were the predictions from the final results?" O'Brien said.

The counting for the 294-member West Bengal assembly will begin on May 4. Will the pollsters be able to prove Mamata Banerjee wrong this time? That question will be answered on Monday.

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