Poll of polls: DMK in TN, Congress return in Kerala, NDA in Assam, Bengal suspense

After a gruelling month-long election across four states and one UT, a poll of exit polls has predicted a thumping victory for the BJP in Assam and given an edge to the party over Mamata Banerjee's TMC in West Bengal. Down south, exit polls have projected a return of the DMK in Tamil Nadu and a comeback by the Congress-led UDF in Kerala after 10 years.

Only Axis My India has predicted a vijay (victory) for TVK's Vijay in a stunner in Tamil Nadu, giving it 98-120 seats in the 234-member assembly.

BENGAL EXIT POLL OF POLLS

The biggest suspense, however, remains West Bengal - a state that the BJP billed as a make-or-break battle, calling it the party's final frontier. Since 2014, the BJP has been attempting to breach Mamata's fortress. Five exit polls predict the BJP might be able to do this year, giving it anywhere between 146-192 seats.

Three pollsters have projected a thumping victory for the fourth consecutive time for the TMC. While People's Pulse has predicted 177-187 seats, Janmat Polls forecast 195-205 seats for the party, which has been in power for 15 years.

Today’s Chanakya has projected a sweeping lead for the BJP in West Bengal, estimating 192+ seats for the party in the 294-member Assembly. The survey predicted just 100+ seats for the TMC, while others are projected to win 2 seats.

The BJP's rise in the state has been rapid. In 2016, the party had only three assembly seats. Within five years, it jumped to 77 of the 294 seats. The BJP secured 38.1% of the votes in the 2021 polls, emerging as the main opposition.

This time, the BJP gave its all to win Bengal. While Prime Minister Narendra Modi criss-crossed the state, holding over 20 rallies, visiting temples, and even stopping to have Bengal's quintessential snack jhalmuri, Home Minister Amit Shah camped for 15 days.

This time, the BJP hopes that its campaign focused on corruption, joblessness, women's safety and welfare leakages would help it make inroads in TMC strongholds.

However, the biggest factor that BJP leaders are counting on is the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls. It resulted in the deletion and exclusion of 91 lakh names from the voter list, which the BJP feels would hurt the TMC.

ASSAM POLL OF EXIT POLLS

In neighbouring Assam, the pollsters, however, were unanimous in the BJP retaining power for a third straight term. A poll of exit polls forecast 88 seats for the Himanta Sarma-led BJP in the 126-member assembly. The Congress, which put up a spirited campaign under its new state chief, Gaurav Gogoi, is projected to get around 27 seats.

Today’s Chanakya exit poll has predicted a decisive victory for the BJP-led alliance in Assam and is likely to win 102 in the 126-member Assembly, well past the majority mark of 64. In contrast, the Congress-led alliance is likely to put up a poor show and may win only 23 seats. Other parties are expected to get only one seat.

If the numbers hold on the result day (May 4), Himanta Sarma, who has campaigned on a welfare outreach and governance plank, will return for a second consecutive term. 'Jati, mati, bheti (community, land, home)' has been the rallying cry of the BJP, while the Congress has sought to tap into anti-incumbency to unseat the BJP.

Down south, Kerala is predicted to see a change, while Tamil Nadu is likely to see the status quo. Let's take Tamil Nadu first.

TAMIL NADU POLL OF EXIT POLLS

A poll of exit polls has projected a win for MK Stalin's DMK, with 130 of the state's 234 seats. The AIADMK, which formed a broad coalition with the NDA and other factions, is likely to get 65 seats.

For both the Dravidian parties, the projected numbers are a sharp drop from the 2021 polls. In 2021, the DMK-led front won 159 seats, with the DMK alone taking 133, while the AIADMK alliance finished with 75 seats.

Behind the drop is the entry of actor Vijay's Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK). And he seems to have been a major factor in the polls. The poll of polls suggests Vijay's party will win 31 seats by likely denting the established vote banks of both DMK and AIADMK.

The only outlier among the pollsters was Axis My India, which forecast 98–120 seats for Vijay. Axis My India chief Pradeep Gupta even likened Vijay's rise to that of MGR in Tamil Nadu and NTR in Andhra Pradesh.

Since he jumped into politics in 2024, Vijay has managed to draw massive crowds, particularly among youth and urban voters, projecting himself as an alternative with a strong anti-corruption pitch.

Today’s Chanakya exit poll has projected a clear edge for the DMK-led alliance, while suggesting a weaker showing for the AIADMK and a notable presence for TVK. According to the survey, DMK is likely to secure 125 seats, well ahead of AIADMK, which is predicted to get 45.

The TVK is likely to put up a good show on its debut and may win 63 seats, indicating it could emerge as a key player in the state’s political landscape, the survey shows.

In terms of vote prediction, the DMK is projected to get 39 per cent, followed by 30 per cent for TVK, 27 per cent for AIADMK and 4 per cent for others, according to Today’s Chanakya.

KERALA POLL OF EXIT POLLS

In Kerala, Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, grappling with a decade's worth of anti-incumbency, is likely to make way for the Congress-led UDF, as per a majority of exit polls. A poll of polls has projected 77 seats for the UDF, while giving 55 to the Left Front.

Today's Chanakya, however, has predicted a tight contest in Kerala, but has given an edge to the UDF. According to the survey, the UDF is predicted to win 69 seats, followed by 64 for the LDF and seven for the NDA. Other parties may get only 1 seat, the exit poll suggests.

If the numbers hold, it will be a major setback to Vijayan, whom critics often refer to as "mundu udatha Modi" (Modi in a mundu), and the Left. Kerala is the only state where the Left Front is in power. A loss will mean a "red" wipeout from India's political map.

For the Congress, it will be a shot in the arm after a spate of losses in Bihar, Delhi, Maharashtra and Haryana. The UDF not only swept the 2024 Lok Sabha in the state, but the recent local body polls as well.

Now, all eyes will be on May 4.