El Nino headed for India: China sounds alarm, confirms when it will peak
A fresh warning from the weather authorities in one of India's neighbours has added to growing global concern over the emergence of a strong El Nino this year.
El Nino is all but confirmed to emerge in the coming month, and bring along weather conditions expected to wreak havoc across the world.
The same is expected in South Asia, where climate-vulnerable countries like India are already dealing with erratic weather.
Now, one of the nations bordering India has rung the bell on the incoming El Nino.
China's weather authorities have warned that El Nino, a global weather event capable of disrupting rain, drying up farmlands, and triggering floods, is expected to peak this autumn and winter.
For a region like South Asia, where millions of farmers depend on the sky for food and income, this is a significant cause for concern.
With 2026 already acting up, El Nino is expected to worsen the situation around the region.
Here's what the arrival of El Nino in South Asia would mean for India.
WHAT DOES EL NINO MEAN FOR INDIA?
For India, the connection between a vulnerable nation and El Nino is rather consequential.
The world's most populous country receives nearly 70% of its annual rainfall during the four-month southwest monsoon, from June to September.
When El Nino is active, those rains often weaken.
Historically, nearly two-thirds of major monsoon failures in India have coincided with an El Nino year, cementing the prospect of India's already delayed monsoon being affected.
The 2015 El Nino, for instance, left India with a monsoon that fell 14% below average, devastating for farmers and reservoirs alike.
WHEN IS EL NINO COMING?
According to China's National Climate Center, El Nino conditions have already begun forming in the central and eastern Pacific, likely from around May 2026.
This means that the event is now expected to intensify through summer and reach its peak strength during autumn and winter.
The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has sounded a similar warning, saying that climate models are suggesting a similar timeline for El Nino's onset and further intensification in the months ahead.
Some forecasts suggest Pacific temperatures could run 2–2.5°C above normal by September. That would make this one of the more powerful El Nino events in recent decades.
Furthermore, a small minority of models even flag the possibility of a super El Nino, though that still remains uncertain.
As for India, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has already projected the 2026 monsoon at 90% of the long-period average, officially placing it in the "below normal" category.
Some estimates suggest total seasonal rainfall could fall short by as much as 8%.
If the rain levels remain poor in India, the consequences are far-reaching. A below-normal monsoon is not just a weather anomaly for a nation like India that is vastly dependent on agriculture.
That said, El Nino's grip on India's monsoon is not absolute.
The coming weeks will tell whether South Asia is able to weather this weather event or if it buckles under the weather.